Commentary: Why China’s Exports Turned Negative in October
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Data released by the General Administration of Customs on Nov. 7 showed that China’s exports, in U.S. dollar terms, fell 1.1% year-on-year in October, a sharp reversal from the 8.3% growth recorded in the prior month and defying a consensus forecast for a 3.2% increase. This marks the first negative growth since March of this year.
An analysis by region shows that exports to the U.S., while still contracting, saw the decline narrow to 25.2% from 27.0% in September. Shipments to ASEAN countries maintained a degree of resilience, growing 11.0%, though this was a slowdown from the 15.6% growth in September.
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- China’s exports in October fell 1.1% year-on-year, reversing last month’s 8.3% growth and missing the forecasted 3.2% rise.
- Export declines varied by region and product, with sharp drops to the US and EU, and labor-intensive goods falling, but tech products like integrated circuits and automobiles growing robustly.
- Factors include last year’s data distortion, eased US-EU trade tensions, and an end to transshipment front-loading, raising the risk of negative export growth in Q4.
- Soochow Securities
- Lu Zhe, the Chief Economist and Co-head of the Research Institute at Soochow Securities, contributed an analysis regarding China's export data. The article mentions Soochow Securities as Lu Zhe's affiliation.
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