Commentary: China’s Economy Isn’t Stalling, It’s Pivoting
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Workers assemble new-energy vehicles in Jinhua, Zhejiang province, on Jan. 13, 2026. Photo: Visual China
China’s economy has headed into 2026 sending mixed messages. On one side, the sudden rise and success of Deep Seek, Manus and other domestic AI leaders have boosted confidence in China’s ability to both drive innovation and commercialize leading-edge technologies. On the other, national real estate prices are still declining, further extending a prolonged drag on confidence and consumption levels.
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- China’s 2026 GDP growth target is about 5%, slower than before but with an economy now four times larger than in 2008.
- Real estate struggles persist, but leading domestic AI firms and manufacturing strength boost global influence and innovation.
- China is leveraging its scale and partnerships, especially with the Global South, to shape the global economic order despite moderating growth.
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Who’s Who
- Deep Seek
- Deep Seek is a domestic Chinese AI leader whose sudden rise and success have boosted confidence in China's ability to drive innovation and commercialize leading-edge technologies. Its emergence is cited as a positive sign for the Chinese economy as it heads into 2026.
- Manus
- Manus is a domestic AI leader in China that experienced a sudden rise and success. Its achievement, alongside other Chinese AI companies like Deep Seek, has bolstered confidence in China's capacity to innovate and commercialize advanced technologies.
- Primavera Capital Group
- Zhu Ning, a senior macro-strategic advisor at Primavera Capital Group (春华资本集团), contributed to this article. Primavera Capital Group is a prominent investment firm.
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