Analysis: Vietnam’s High-Wire Economic Act Pays Off
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In a global economic landscape defined by fragmentation and protectionism, Vietnam remains a startling outlier. Having closed 2025 with an 8.02% GDP expansion, Hanoi has laid the groundwork for an even more aggressive trajectory through 2030. The government has set a growth target exceeding 10% for 2026—a figure that would be dismissed as fantasy in most emerging markets but remains plausible here.
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- Vietnam's GDP grew 8.02% in 2025, with a 2026 target above 10%; manufacturing, especially autos and traditional sectors, is driving expansion.
- Foreign direct investment disbursed reached $27.6 billion (up 9%), exports rose 17.9% to $475 billion, and inflation remained low at 3.48% in December.
- Vietnam managed stable U.S. trade ties despite global tensions, and tourism rebounded, led by a 41.3% jump in Chinese visitors.
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Who’s Who
- VinFast
- VinFast significantly boosted Vietnam's automotive sector in 2025. It largely drove a 22.0% surge in automotive production, contributing to the country's overall industrial output growth of 9.2% that year.
- Samsung
- In Vietnam, the electronics sector, a segment where Samsung operates alongside other giants like LG, experienced a slowdown. Toward the end of the year, output growth in this sector cooled to 8.3%. This moderation in growth reflects broader global demand cycles affecting the industry.
- LG
- The article mentions LG as one of the "giants" in the electronics sector in Vietnam. It notes that toward the end of 2025, the electronics sector, including companies like LG, saw its output growth cool to 8.3%. This slowdown is attributed to broader global demand cycles.
- S&P Global
- S&P Global is mentioned in the article in the context of the S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing PMI. This index stood at 53 in December, indicating an expansion in Vietnam's manufacturing sector.
- Guotai Junan International
- Guotai Junan International is an organization where Zhou Hao works as the Chief Economist. He authored the article, offering insights into Vietnam's economic landscape, its projected growth, and the factors contributing to its success as a rapidly expanding economy.
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What Happened When
- 2025：
- Vietnam concluded the year with an 8.02% GDP expansion.
- 2025：
- Automotive sector production surged 22.0%, largely due to VinFast's expansion.
- 2025：
- International arrivals to Vietnam grew 20.4%.
- Late 2025：
- Vietnam successfully negotiated constructive agreements with Washington during the second Trump administration.
- Early 2026：
- The State Bank of Vietnam adopted a cautious monetary stance.
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