Commentary: China’s Travel Rush Is Back, and So Is the Sticker Shock

1. The annual migration known as “Chunyun” during China’s Spring Festival marks the period of highest stress on the nation’s transportation network each year. Spanning 40 days, this travel rush witnesses a staggering 9.5 billion cross-regional trips, with railways and civil aviation expecting all-time highs—540 million and 95 million passengers, respectively. Scenes of crowded stations, long lines, and frantic ticket searches dominate, reflecting the population’s immense mobility during this festival period.[para. 1][para. 2]

2. By January 2026, high-speed rail stations continue to see increasing passenger volumes, and social media is full of users either celebrating securing tickets or lamenting being stranded on waitlists. This year, however, rising travel costs have generated more public complaints, making the high price of returning home a widely felt economic burden during the holiday period.[para. 3][para. 4]

3. Rail and air transportation comprise over 80% of China’s total passenger turnover, and examining the pricing and financial trends in these sectors is key to understanding the economic pressures at play. Since 2017, high-speed rail fares have gradually increased, with notable hikes in 2020, 2021, 2023, and a significant 20% rise on major lines in May 2024. Simultaneously, older, cheaper “green trains” are being retired in favor of more expensive electric and high-speed services, such as the retirement of the Z99 after 29 years in service.[para. 5][para. 6][para. 7]

4. After pandemic-era lows saw domestic airfares plunge between 2019 and 2020 (from 758 yuan to 598 yuan, with some fares dropping to just 49-50 yuan), prices have sharply rebounded. By May Day 2025, average fares had risen to 779 yuan, a slight increase over 2019 levels, and volatile fuel surcharges have heightened the perception that air travel is once again a luxury for many.[para. 8]

5. Industry figures show a recovery in volume and revenue: 2025 saw China’s civil aviation industry post 6.5 billion yuan in profits (up from 120 million yuan in 2024), with 770 million passengers, and national railway revenue reaching 1.02 trillion yuan. Despite this, both airlines and national railways struggle with low profit margins; soaring passenger numbers mask deep-seated structural challenges.[para. 9][para. 10]

6. Most airlines experience thin or negative margins, with even the three state-owned giants—China Southern, Air China, and China Eastern—collectively losing over 4.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2025. Key issues include high costs, decreased business travel profitability, and stiff competition from high-speed trains, especially on short-haul routes.[para. 11][para. 12]

7. The China State Railway Group, although profitable overall since 2023, operates many loss-making routes, especially in mountainous regions. Expansion plans are costly, aiming for 180,000 kilometers of track by 2030. The company’s liability-to-asset ratio remains high, around 63-65%, indicating ongoing financial pressures that have prompted fare increases.[para. 13][para. 14][para. 15]

8. As transport providers raise prices, consumers demand improved services. Providers now offer more segmented and specialized products: trains feature ski gear storage, airlines provide free sports equipment checking, and “quiet car” options expand. New markets are targeted with routes designed specifically for tourism, and premium “travel experiences”—such as luxury rolling hotels or themed flights—are rising in popularity. Technological reforms and digitalization efforts improve operations and passenger experiences.[para. 16][para. 17][para. 18][para. 19][para. 20]

9. Ultimately, China’s transport sector must recalibrate—shifting from expansion to refined, more profitable operations. While price hikes seem inevitable, the true test will be if higher-quality services and transparent pricing can persuade travelers that these fare increases are justified and their journeys are genuinely worth the cost.[para. 21][para. 22][para. 23]