Commentary: China’s Travel Rush Is Back, and So Is the Sticker Shock

1. The Spring Festival travel rush, known as “Chunyun,” marks the period when China’s transportation faces its greatest strain. On the second day of the 2026 rush, long passenger queues and widespread ticketing chaos highlight the scale: over 9.5 billion cross-regional trips are expected during the 40 days, with railways projected to carry 540 million passengers and civil aviation 95 million, both at record highs [para. 1][para. 2].

2. The surge in passenger volume is evident at high-speed rail stations, and while some celebrate ticket successes on social media, a major public concern this year is the rising cost of travel. Unlike the minimal price fluctuations in urban commuting, the holiday exodus has made elevated transport costs the most tangible economic issue for many. Understanding this trend requires analyzing the financial realities underpinning China’s transport sector [para. 3][para. 4].

3. Rail and air travel jointly represent over 80% of China’s passenger turnover. Both modes are experiencing notable price changes. High-speed rail fares have increased with multiple adjustments since 2017, most recently in May 2024, when major routes saw price hikes of roughly 20%. Budget “green trains” are being retired and replaced by faster, pricier services, increasing the burden for cost-conscious travelers. The last iconic “green train” on the Z99 route operated in January 2026, replaced by modern high-speed units [para. 5][para. 6][para. 7].

4. Airfares, on the other hand, have fluctuated dramatically. After pandemic lows in 2020, where tickets could be as cheap as 49 yuan ($7) for some routes, domestic airfares have rebounded. By May 2025, average economy fares rose to 779 yuan, slightly above 2019 levels, with frequent and sometimes doubled fuel surcharges. These changes reinforce the perception that air travel is becoming increasingly expensive [para. 8][para. 9].

5. The transport sector’s overall financial health has improved. In 2025, China’s civil aviation industry reported profits of 6.5 billion yuan and handled 770 million passengers (a 5.5% increase), while national rail generated 1.02 trillion yuan in revenue, up 3.1%. However, these gains obscure persistent challenges for individual companies, which face high traffic but low margins [para. 10][para. 11].

6. For airlines, the headline profit figure includes airports and support services rather than just carriers. Core airlines, especially the state-owned “Big Three,” lost a combined 4.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, while only some private carriers were profitable. They contend with high fixed costs, reduced business travel, and stiff competition from high-speed rail [para. 12][para. 13].

7. The China State Railway Group, despite posting overall profits since 2023, runs many lines at a loss, notably in less populous regions. Construction and maintenance remain expensive, with a goal to expand to 180,000 km by 2030 and a liability-to-asset ratio that only recently dipped below 63%. Since most revenue comes from passenger and freight charges, fare increases become the main solution [para. 14][para. 15][para. 16].

8. To justify higher costs, transport providers are shifting toward more customized, commercially oriented services. Railway booking apps now highlight trains catering to skiers, “quiet car” services are expanding, and express trains for business passengers are being introduced. Airlines are similarly promoting niche routes, themed experiences, and improved amenities [para. 17][para. 18][para. 19][para. 20].

9. Technological upgrades are streamlining backend operations, such as advanced meteorological systems at airports and enhanced 5G coverage along major rail corridors. These innovations aim to raise service quality in line with premium pricing [para. 21].

10. Ultimately, China’s transport sector is navigating a transition from mass expansion to operational refinement. Higher prices are only a symptom of this shift, and the sector’s long-term viability hinges on convincing travelers that elevated costs are matched by heightened value and service [para. 22].

11. The article’s author, Wu Xiaobo, clarifies that the expressed views are personal and not necessarily reflective of the editorial stance of Caixin Media [para. 23][para. 24].