Commentary: Who Really Pays for the Strait of Hormuz Blockade?
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Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict in February 2026, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has sent global energy markets into a tailspin. With crude prices whipsawing and supply chains choked, energy security and inflation have reemerged as the twin specters haunting the global economy.
But a closer examination of how different nations consume energy reveals a starkly uneven landscape of vulnerability. The conventional wisdom — that the biggest importers suffer most — misses the mark. The true measure of a nation’s exposure lies in its energy mix and the efficiency of its inflation transmission.
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- Strait of Hormuz blockade since Feb 2026 cuts 7.5-9.1M bpd oil supply (30% global production), surging prices to $130-$170/bbl.
- High vulnerability: Japan (35.5% Middle East oil dependence), US/Europe (price shocks), India (33.1% oil/gas mix); low for China (10.5% dependence, weak oil-inflation link).
- China most resilient due to coal-heavy energy mix, reserves, state price controls.
- Yuekai Securities
- Yuekai Securities is the employer of Luo Zhiheng, the chief economist and author of the article.
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