Caixin

Commentary: Who Really Pays for the Strait of Hormuz Blockade?

Published: Apr. 23, 2026  4:28 p.m.  GMT+8
00:00
00:00/00:00
Listen to this article 1x
Imported crude oil is unloaded at an oil terminal at Qingdao Port in Shandong province on April 22, 2026. Photo: VCG
Imported crude oil is unloaded at an oil terminal at Qingdao Port in Shandong province on April 22, 2026. Photo: VCG

Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict in February 2026, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has sent global energy markets into a tailspin. With crude prices whipsawing and supply chains choked, energy security and inflation have reemerged as the twin specters haunting the global economy.

But a closer examination of how different nations consume energy reveals a starkly uneven landscape of vulnerability. The conventional wisdom — that the biggest importers suffer most — misses the mark. The true measure of a nation’s exposure lies in its energy mix and the efficiency of its inflation transmission.

loadingImg
You've accessed an article available only to subscribers
VIEW OPTIONS

Unlock exclusive discounts with a Caixin group subscription — ideal for teams and organizations.

Subscribe to Save an extra $50. Introductory offer for new readers. Subscribe now.

Share this article
Open WeChat and scan the QR code
DIGEST HUB
Digest Hub Back
Explore the story in 30 seconds
  • Strait of Hormuz blockade since Feb 2026 cuts 7.5-9.1M bpd oil supply (30% global production), surging prices to $130-$170/bbl.
  • High vulnerability: Japan (35.5% Middle East oil dependence), US/Europe (price shocks), India (33.1% oil/gas mix); low for China (10.5% dependence, weak oil-inflation link).
  • China most resilient due to coal-heavy energy mix, reserves, state price controls.
AI generated, for reference only
Who’s Who
Yuekai Securities
Yuekai Securities is the employer of Luo Zhiheng, the chief economist and author of the article.
AI generated, for reference only
Subscribe to unlock Digest Hub
SUBSCRIBE NOW
PODCAST
Darers & Doers Podcast: The Quest for AI-Powered Cancer Vaccines
00:00
00:00/00:00