Nov 20, 2014 04:27 PM

Justin Lin Ignores Population Factor with Growth Predictions

Former World Bank economist Justin Lin Yifu has repeatedly said over the past few years that China can maintain an economic growth rate of 8 percent for another 20 years. He defended his optimism in an article in October, revising the figure down to 7 to 7.5 percent.

Lin has had a good track record of beating pessimistic forecasters about China's economy and we agree with his theories in a large part, but he seems to have neglected the fact that China's population is aging fast and its number of working age people is shrinking. That is why he may have overestimated the country's growth rate.

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