Opinion: Why China Is Unlikely to Fall Into the Middle-Income Trap

Countless books have been written on China’s rise. Almost none of them considers the Chinese population’s hard work and thrift as factors leading to its success. The factors commonly cited are all institutional (market reforms leading to capital accumulation and higher productivity). The belief is that other countries implementing the exact same policies as China would also grow by an average of 8 to 10 percent for 40 years.