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Analysis: China Likely to Forgo Major Stimulus as Growth Target Remains in Reach

Published: Jul. 28, 2026  12:29 p.m.  GMT+8
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Customers shop at a mall in Jinhua, East China’s Zhejiang province, on July 4. Photo: VCG
Customers shop at a mall in Jinhua, East China’s Zhejiang province, on July 4. Photo: VCG

China’s top leadership is expected to hold off on major new stimulus at a key Politburo meeting in late July, focusing instead on executing existing fiscal policies to stabilize a slowing economy.

With first-half GDP growing 4.7% year-on-year, China only needs about 4.3% growth in the second half to meet its annual target, estimates Xiong Yuan, chief economist at Guosheng Securities Co. Ltd.

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