[Preview of the Weekly] The Delayed "American Recession": How Will the Successes and Failures of Biden's Economic Policies Impact the World? (AI Translation)
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- The average cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for 10 in the U.S. decreased by 4.5% in 2023 to $61.17, returning to the level of 2018, and airfare prices also dropped by 13% during the holiday period compared to the previous year.
- Despite concerns about a recession due to aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the U.S. economy has shown resilience with a GDP growth of 2.9% in 2022 and an unemployment rate below 4%. The IMF has raised its growth forecast for the U.S. economy for 2023 and 2024.
- Challenges such as inflation have impacted living costs, leading to political implications for upcoming elections, while debates continue on how to manage federal debt amidst rising interest expenses that have surpassed defense spending.
文｜财新周刊 王力为、王晶（发自北京），曾佳（发自美国首都华盛顿）
By Caixin Weekly's Wang Liwei, Wang Jing (from Beijing), Zeng Jia (from Washington D.C., USA)
感恩节大餐或许是大部分美国人一年中最期待的晚餐之一。美国白宫披露，据美国农场局（American Farm Bureau）的统计，2023年一顿10人火鸡晚餐的平均花销为61.17美元，相比2022年的64.05美元下降了4.5%，已回到了2018年的水平。感恩节也是美国人返乡省亲的重要节日，美国各地机场人头攒动，2023年感恩节期间机票均价比上年也下跌了13%。
The Thanksgiving feast is perhaps one of the most anticipated dinners of the year for most Americans. According to statistics from the American Farm Bureau, disclosed by the White House, the average cost of a 10-person turkey dinner in 2023 is $61.17, a decrease of 4.5% from $64.05 in 2022, returning to levels last seen in 2018. Thanksgiving is also an important holiday for Americans to return home and visit relatives, with airports across the country bustling with travelers. In 2023, the average price of plane tickets during the Thanksgiving period also fell by 13% compared to the previous year.
这些数据都指向美国经济过去两年的核心主题——如何在保证就业、支持经济的同时，抑制过去三年来愈演愈烈、已经影响到普通人生活成本的通胀问题。
These figures all point to the central theme of the U.S. economy over the past two years—how to ensure employment and support economic growth while curbing inflation, which has been intensifying over the past three years and has already impacted the cost of living for ordinary people.
与此前市场的很多预测不同，截至目前，美国经济展现出的韧性有些令人叹为观止。早在2022年3月美联储开始加息之际，市场上就出现了加息步伐过快可能导致美国经济陷入衰退的担忧。随着加息频率和幅度的快速提升，到2022年下半年，这一担忧更成为市场共识。彭博2022年10月曾预计12个月内美国经济衰退的概率为100%。
Contrary to many market predictions, the resilience displayed by the U.S. economy thus far has been somewhat astonishing. As early as March 2022, when the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates, there were concerns in the market that an overly rapid pace of rate hikes could plunge the U.S. economy into recession. With the frequency and magnitude of rate increases accelerating, by the second half of 2022, this concern had become a market consensus. In October 2022, Bloomberg had forecasted a 100% probability of a U.S. economic recession within the next 12 months.
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