[Preview of This Week's Issue] Will the Relaunch of Affordable Housing to Hedge Against Real Estate Downturn Increase the Risk of Housing Oversupply? (AI Translation)
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- In the context of a significant downturn in China's real estate market, affordable housing has gained attention as a key counterbalance to promote stable and healthy development. Central political meetings have emphasized increasing the construction and supply of affordable housing, but details on implementation and scale remain unclear.
- Affordable housing in China has historically been supplementary to commercial real estate, with marketized purchases and rentals constituting about 88% of the housing supply. Recent discussions suggest plans for a new round of affordable housing construction, potentially involving the creation of 10 million units, though official confirmation is pending.
- Challenges include financing the construction without exacerbating local government debt or destabilizing real estate markets. The allocation process for affordable housing must also be fair and transparent to avoid past issues with rent-seeking and unfair distribution that have plagued previous initiatives.
文｜财新周刊 于海荣 丁锋
By Caixin Weekly's Yu Hairong, Ding Feng
在持续两年多销售和新开工面积断崖式下跌、房地产行业面临触底及转型的大背景下，2023年下半年，保障性住房被视为促进房地产市场平稳健康发展的重要对冲力量，备受瞩目，但究竟会如何推进，要做到多大规模，目前还不甚清晰。
Amid a precipitous decline in sales and new construction area for over two years, and with the real estate industry facing a bottoming out and transformation, affordable housing is seen as an important counterbalancing force to promote the stable and healthy development of the property market in the second half of 2023. It has attracted considerable attention, but how it will be advanced and to what scale remains unclear at present.
2023年7月24日的中央政治局会议在提出“房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化”的同时，提出“要加大保障性住房建设和供给”，将其与积极推动城中村改造和“平急两用”公共基础设施建设并列。此后中央金融工作会议和中央经济工作会议均将此合称为“三大工程”，成为房地产发展新模式中亟须“立”的部分。住建部近期多次表示，规划建设保障性住房，是完善住房制度和供应体系、重构市场和保障关系的重大改革。
On July 24, 2023, the meeting of the Central Political Bureau highlighted a significant shift in the supply and demand relationship within the real estate market. It called for an increase in the construction and provision of affordable housing, placing it on par with the active promotion of urban village renovations and the development of dual-use public infrastructure for both peacetime and emergencies. Subsequent Central Financial Work Conference and Central Economic Work Conference have collectively referred to these initiatives as the "Three Major Projects," which are essential components to establish in the new model for real estate development. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has recently reiterated multiple times that planning and constructing affordable housing is a major reform aimed at improving the housing system, supply structure, and reshaping market dynamics as well as security relationships.
“从各国发展历史看，全球只有新加坡是例外，没有遭受过房地产周期或房地产业过热的冲击。”近期，日本央行原行长白川方明来中国与业界座谈时曾提到。他还建议中国借鉴新加坡的组屋制度，为公众提供不同需求分层的住房或租房保障。
"Looking at the development history of various countries, only Singapore is an exception that has not suffered from real estate cycles or the impact of an overheated property industry," mentioned Masaaki Shirakawa, former Governor of the Bank of Japan, during a recent discussion with Chinese industry experts. He also suggested that China could learn from Singapore's public housing system to provide layered housing or rental guarantees to meet diverse public needs.
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