[Weekly Preview] Qinghai’s Frenzied Solar Investment: What Risks Lie Beneath the “Sea of Glass”? (AI Translation)
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文｜财新周刊 范若虹 赵煊
By Caixin Weekly’s Fan Ruohong and Zhao Xuan
在青海省海南州共和县平均海拔2920米的大片戈壁滩上，一望无际的光伏板宛如“玻璃海”，令人震撼。这里是全球规模最大的光伏发电园区，2022年获得吉尼斯世界纪录认证。这一园区目前已建成的光伏电站装机容量1533万千瓦，占地面积420平方公里，还有近189平方公里的新增装机将陆续上马，累计投资超过2500亿元。待全部投产后，这片“玻璃海”将超过新加坡国土面积的八成。
On the vast Gobi Desert plains of Gonghe County, Hainan Prefecture, Qinghai Province—at an average altitude of 2,920 meters—an endless expanse of photovoltaic panels glimmers like a “sea of glass,” creating a stunning spectacle. This is the world's largest photovoltaic power generation park, certified by the Guinness World Records in 2022. The park’s installed PV power capacity has reached 15.33 million kilowatts, spanning 420 square kilometers, with an additional nearly 189 square kilometers of new installations set to come online in phases. The total investment has exceeded 250 billion yuan. Once fully operational, this vast “sea of glass” will cover an area more than 80% the size of Singapore.
青海省目前有接近2200万千瓦的光伏装机，连续七年保持“全绿电世界纪录”——2017年，青海以连续7天168小时全清洁能源供电，打破葡萄牙的107小时世界纪录；随后还每年刷新这一数字，连续9日、15日，直到35日。
Qinghai Province currently has nearly 22 gigawatts of installed photovoltaic capacity, and has maintained the “world record for all-green electricity” for seven consecutive years. In 2017, Qinghai supplied power for seven consecutive days—168 hours—entirely from clean energy, surpassing Portugal’s previous world record of 107 hours. In each subsequent year, the province continued to break its own record, extending the streak to nine days, then 15 days, and eventually reaching 35 days of exclusive clean energy supply.
青海位于青藏高原腹地，地势坡度起伏，高原大陆性气候干湿两季分明，日温差大、日照充足，因而光能、风能资源丰富；同时还是长江、黄河和澜沧江（境外称湄公河）“三江源头”，水力充沛。目前青海的电源结构中，传统水电装机容量占比超过28%，风电装机接近22%，加上连续四年成为省内第一大电源的光伏装机（占比43.7%）——光、水、风三类清洁能源总占比超过九成，是中国各省市地区中践行“双碳”（碳达峰、碳中和）的绝对先锋。
Qinghai is located in the heart of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, characterized by undulating terrain and a plateau continental climate with two distinct wet and dry seasons, significant daily temperature fluctuations, and abundant sunshine—making it rich in both solar and wind energy resources. The province is also the source of three major rivers—the Yangtze, Yellow, and Lancang (known as the Mekong outside China)—providing ample hydropower potential. Currently, traditional hydropower comprises more than 28% of Qinghai’s power generation capacity, while wind power accounts for nearly 22%. Photovoltaic (solar) power, which has been the province’s largest power source for four consecutive years, makes up 43.7% of the energy mix. Together, solar, hydro, and wind constitute over 90% of the province’s total installed capacity, positioning Qinghai as a clear vanguard among China’s provinces and municipalities in achieving the “dual carbon” goals of peaking carbon emissions and reaching carbon neutrality.
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- 青海拥有全球最大的光伏发电园区，装机容量1533万千瓦，占地420平方公里，并有进一步扩建计划。
- 尽管清洁能源装机占比超过90%，青海在大部分时间仍面临用电短缺，白天光伏电力过剩导致弃电，夜间则需外购高价电力。
- 青海电力供应存在“电源结构错配”和“价值价格错配”问题，导致“窝电”与“缺电”并存，亟需调整电源结构和完善价格机制。
[para. 1]
- State Grid Qinghai Electric Power Company
国网青海省电力公司 - State Grid Qinghai Electric Power Company explains that the underutilization of the Qinghai-Henan HVDC transmission line is due to both technical factors and the delayed commissioning of supporting generator units for new energy sources. They also predict a significant increase in Qinghai's annual external power purchases.
- China Electricity Council
中国电力企业联合会 - Xue Jing, a former department director, states that coal power is crucial for peak shaving during the rapid development of new energy sources. She emphasizes the necessity of coal power acting as a large energy storage system.
- Trina Solar
天合光能 - Trina Solar is a solar module manufacturer that has invested in 青海 (Qīnghǎi) province. It plans to invest nearly 60 billion yuan to build a complete photovoltaic industry chain in the province, from silicon materials upstream to photovoltaic power stations downstream.
- GCL Solar
高景太阳能 - GCL Solar (高景太阳能) is a silicon wafer manufacturer that has established a presence in Qinghai, China. This move is part of a broader trend of solar manufacturing companies, including Trina Solar (天合光能) and Qinghai Lihao (青海丽豪), investing in the region.
- Qinghai Lihao
青海丽豪 - Qinghai Lihao is a polysilicon manufacturer that has established a presence in Qinghai, primarily within the Xining Economic and Technological Development Zone. This company is part of a wave of photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises attracted to Qinghai by its low-cost "green electricity." The influx of such manufacturing companies has significantly boosted Qinghai's electricity consumption and production of materials like polysilicon.
- China Aluminum Group Qinghai Branch
中铝集团青海分公司 - China Aluminum Group Qinghai Branch, with 400,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, plans to acquire an additional 100,000 tons from its parent company in Yunnan by 2025. This expansion would increase its total capacity to 500,000 tons, qualifying it for a large-scale photovoltaic power station investment. Despite a projected 16-year return on investment, the company, like other state-owned enterprises, prioritizes new energy investment as a corporate responsibility.
- Yellow River Upper Hydropower Development Company
黄河上游水电开发公司 - Yellow River Upper Hydropower Development Company is a state-owned enterprise in Qinghai. A company representative stated that Qinghai's hydropower output has been low for three consecutive years due to drought conditions, with no significant improvement expected until 2025. The company was required to invest an additional 2.1 billion yuan to install 21 synchronous condensers in its large-scale photovoltaic power stations.
- 2017：
- Qinghai supplied power for seven consecutive days (168 hours) entirely from clean energy, surpassing Portugal’s previous world record.
- 2018：
- The photovoltaic utilization rate in Qinghai began to drop, with curtailed power at 650 million kWh and utilization at 95%.
- 2018-2021：
- Photovoltaic utilization rate in Qinghai dropped from 95% to 86%. Curtailed electricity rose from 650 million kWh to 3.34 billion kWh.
- 2018-2022：
- Qinghai's installed solar power capacity nearly doubled over five years.
- From 2018 to 2020：
- Hydropower supplied more than 60% of Qinghai's electricity generation.
- 2020：
- Illegal coal mining at the Muli coal mine exposed; crackdowns and mining restrictions in Qinghai followed.
- 2020 (end)：
- Qinghai-Henan UHV DC transmission line completed and commissioned.
- 2020-2022：
- Fixed asset investment in Qinghai declined for three consecutive years, while investment in clean energy grew year by year.
- 2021：
- Electricity price hikes and falling aluminum prices forced bankruptcy and restructuring at Qinghai Provincial Investment Group's aluminum smelting enterprises.
- 2021 (end)：
- Plan for large-scale wind and solar power bases in Qinghai was issued.
- 2022：
- Guinness World Records certified Qinghai's park as the world's largest photovoltaic power generation park.
- 2022：
- Qinghai's GDP ranked second to last in China; total electricity consumption equaled that of Hangzhou.
- 2022：
- Share of hydropower fell to 43% in Qinghai’s electricity mix.
- 2022：
- Qinghai’s on-grid electricity price was RMB 0.2277 per kWh, the lowest in China.
- 2022：
- Installed wind and solar capacity in China surpassed initial growth expectations after the dual carbon goals were announced.
- 2022：
- Qinghai's electricity imports reached 14 billion kWh.
- 2022：
- Qinghai issued the 'Qinghai Power Source-Grid-Load-Storage Integrated Project Management Measures (Trial).'
- November 2022：
- Qinghai Provincial Energy Bureau issued new management measures for integrated projects.
- Winter 2022：
- Qinghai had to purchase external power at up to 1 yuan per kWh.
- By end of 2022：
- Qinghai secured approval for its first batch of pumped storage projects totaling 7.6 million kW.
- 2023：
- Qinghai added nearly 10 GW from the first batch of large-scale wind and solar bases; construction began on the second batch (7 GW); third batch (10 GW) awaiting approval.
- 2023：
- Qinghai spent about 7 billion yuan to purchase electricity from outside regions due to shortages.
- 2023：
- Construction began on coal-fired power projects in Xining and Golmud (first units expected online 2024 and 2025).
- 2023：
- Three new 750-kilovolt substations planned for construction in Qinghai.
- 2023：
- Qinghai’s max social load reached 13.316 million kW, less than 30% of total installed power capacity.
- 2023：
- Haixi and Hainan photovoltaic bases in Qinghai completed more than 10 GW of solar power stations, awaiting grid connection by end of November.
- 2023：
- Qinghai imported approximately 18 billion kWh of electricity, up from 14 billion kWh in 2022.
- 2023：
- Many new energy companies set up manufacturing in Qinghai, accelerating demand.
- 2023 (January to November)：
- Hainan Prefecture generated 41.2 billion kWh power; local consumption was only 1.1 billion kWh.
- 2023 (first three quarters)：
- Qinghai added 3.228 million kW of centralized PV capacity, a 276.7% year-on-year increase.
- 2023 (first three quarters)：
- Electricity consumption in Xining Economic and Technical Zone accounted for nearly half of Qinghai's total.
- 2023 (first eleven months)：
- China’s total installed solar capacity reached 560 million kW (up 49.9% YOY); PV investment reached RMB 320.9 billion (up 60.9% YOY).
- As of end of October 2023：
- Henan’s cumulative installed PV capacity was about 35 million kW, more than doubling in two years.
- As of end of October 2023：
- Qinghai's installed PV capacity was about 21 million kW.
- By end of November 2023：
- China’s total installed power generation capacity was about 2.85 billion kW (up 13.6% YOY); wind power reached 410 million kW (up 17.6% YOY), solar 560 million kW (up 49.9%).
- As of end of November 2023：
- More than 10 GW of completed solar power stations in Hainan and Haixi awaiting grid connection.
- First ten months of 2023：
- Hydropower's share in Qinghai’s power mix fell to less than 40%.
- End of 2023：
- First batch of large-scale wind and solar bases in Qinghai completed and connected to grid.
- By end of 2023：
- China's combined wind and solar capacity surpassed 1 billion kW.
- 2024 (expected)：
- First units of new coal-fired power projects in Xining expected to come online.
- 2024 (expected)：
- Supporting Maldang Hydropower Station and Yangqu Hydropower Station to be commissioned and support UHVDC.
- 2024-2025 (planned)：
- Chinalco plans to transfer a 100,000-ton aluminum production quota from Yunnan to Qinghai, increasing total capacity and qualifying for photovoltaic investment.
- 2025 (planned)：
- First units of new coal-fired power projects in Golmud expected to come online.
- By 2025 (planned)：
- Qinghai’s installed PV capacity targeted to reach 42 million kW, doubling from the level at the end of October 2023.
- January 8, 2025：
- This article excerpted from the upcoming issue of Caixin Weekly.
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