**Preview of the Weekly Edition:** Real Estate Continues to Search for a Bottom - How Will Policies Support the Market After a Decline in Transactions? (AI Translation)
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- The COP28 in Dubai announced the launch of a climate compensation fund for developing nations on its first day, with significant pledges from countries including the UAE, EU, UK, USA, and Japan. This initiative aims to assist vulnerable countries in dealing with climate change impacts like droughts and rising sea levels.
- China's real estate market continues to face challenges with declining sales and investment, leading to record high unsold inventory levels. Efforts to stimulate the market include easing purchase restrictions and introducing financial support measures for both developers and buyers.
- Commercial real estate in China is experiencing an oversupply issue, with record high vacancy rates in office spaces across major cities reflecting weak demand amidst economic slowdown. Policy efforts are being made to stabilize the housing market by addressing financing difficulties faced by real estate companies and encouraging local governments to support viable construction projects.
文｜财新周刊 牛牧江曲
By Caixin Weekly's Niu Mujiangqu
2023年，房地产市场供需两侧的结构性调整，仍在持续打磨底部的状态——开发体量持续收缩，消费者僵持观望。
In 2023, the real estate market continues to experience structural adjustments on both the supply and demand sides, still in a state of bottoming out—with ongoing contraction in development volume and consumers remaining in a deadlock of wait-and-see.
从各项宏观及市场数据来看，本轮房地产市场下行持续时间长、政策效应短、供求博弈程度深，不同于以往任何一个调控周期，这使得过去的行业预测经验似难复用。
From the perspective of various macroeconomic and market data, this downturn in the real estate market is characterized by a prolonged duration, short-lived policy effects, and deep supply-demand negotiations. This situation is unlike any previous regulatory cycle, making it seem that past industry forecasting experience may be difficult to reuse.
从2021年顶峰的“双18”（销售金额18万亿元、销售面积18亿平方米，下同）跌至2023年的“双11”，短短两年间，房地产市场规模整体降幅接近四成，调整程度可谓剧烈。从最新数据看，2024年首月还是缩量趋势——百强房企销售额同比再降超过三成，而其对比的2023年1月包含春节假期，成交基数本来就较低。
From the peak in 2021, with a "double 18" (sales amount of 18 trillion yuan and sales area of 1.8 billion square meters, same below) to a "double 11" in 2023, the real estate market size has seen an overall decline of nearly forty percent in just two years, indicating a drastic adjustment. According to the latest data, the first month of 2024 continued the trend of contraction—sales revenue of top 100 real estate companies fell by more than thirty percent year-on-year, despite January 2023 including the Spring Festival holiday which already had a lower base for transactions.
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