Economic Policy Roadmap for 2024: Central Government Focuses on Boosting Livelihoods and Technology(AI Translation)
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- China's economy aims for a 5% GDP growth in 2024, maintaining the same target as in 2023, with an emphasis on job creation and income growth. The government plans to focus on stimulating economic vitality, managing risks, and improving social expectations to sustain recovery momentum.
- Fiscal policy will moderately increase with a deficit rate set at 3%, matching the previous year's initial budget. Special long-term sovereign bonds worth 1 trillion yuan will be issued for major national projects and security capacity building. Monetary policy will ensure that the scale of social financing and money supply matches economic growth and price level targets.
- Reforms to enhance internal vitality include promoting private enterprise development, accelerating the construction of a unified national market, and planning a new round of fiscal and tax system reforms. These efforts aim to address challenges such as insufficient effective demand and weak social expectations while supporting high-quality development.
文｜财新周刊 于海荣 程思炜
By Caixin Weekly's Yu Hairong, Cheng Siwei
2023年中国经济逐渐向常态回归，“疤痕效应”减退的同时，有效需求不足、社会预期偏弱的局面仍未得到实质性改变。在此背景下，2024年如何增强经济活力、防范化解风险、改善社会预期，巩固和增强经济回升向好态势，成为市场关注的焦点。
In 2023, China's economy gradually returned to normalcy. While the "scarring effect" diminished, issues such as insufficient effective demand and weak social expectations have not seen substantial changes. Against this backdrop, how to enhance economic vitality, prevent and mitigate risks, improve social expectations, and consolidate and enhance the momentum of economic recovery in 2024 has become a focal point of market attention.
《政府工作报告》将2024年国内生产总值（GDP）增长的目标设定为5%左右，与2023年持平。国务院总理李强表示，这考虑了促进就业增收、防范化解风险等需要，并与“十四五”规划和基本实现现代化的目标相衔接，也考虑了经济增长潜力和支撑条件，体现了积极进取、奋发有为的要求。他同时称，实现今年预期目标并非易事，需要政策聚焦发力、工作加倍努力、各方面齐心协力。
The "Government Work Report" has set the target for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate for 2024 at about 5%, maintaining the level of 2023. Premier Li Qiang stated that this takes into consideration the needs for promoting employment and income growth, preventing and resolving risks, and aligns with the goals of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and achieving basic modernization. It also considers the potential and supporting conditions for economic growth, reflecting a requirement for proactive progress and vigorous efforts. He also mentioned that achieving this year's target will not be easy; it requires focused policy efforts, doubled work efforts, and cooperation from all sectors.
市场机构普遍认为，这一目标相对进取。近期部分国际组织和机构对2024年中国经济增速的预期虽有调整，但大都集中在4.5%左右。虽然5%左右的增长目标与2023年持平，但考虑到2023年面对的基数较低，2024年中国经济如果能实现5%左右的增长，经济增量要大大超过2023年。
Market institutions generally regard this target as relatively aggressive. Although some international organizations and institutions have recently adjusted their forecasts for China's economic growth rate in 2024, most of them are centered around 4.5%. While a growth target of about 5% is consistent with that of 2023, considering the low base faced in 2023, if China's economy can achieve a growth of about 5% in 2024, the increase in economic output will significantly exceed that of 2023.
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