Iran's Fatal Presidential Crash - Where Will the Power Transition Take Domestic and Foreign Policy? (AI Translation)
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文｜财新周刊 胡暄 王自励
By Caixin Weekly's Hu Xuan and Wang Zili
2024年5月19日，当总统莱希乘坐的直升机突然消失在伊朗西北部偏远山区的一片浓雾中时，这个拥有约8800万人口、地缘政治地位显要的中东国家，被推向巨大的政治不确定性当中。十余个小时的猜测、等待和搜寻后，消息传来：现年63岁、上任尚不足三年的莱希，以及随行的伊朗外交部长阿卜杜拉希扬等共9名机上乘员，都已因直升机坠毁山间而殒命。
On May 19, 2024, when the helicopter carrying President Raisi vanished into thick fog in a remote mountainous region of northwestern Iran, this Middle Eastern nation, with a population of approximately 88 million and significant geopolitical standing, was thrust into profound political uncertainty. After several hours of speculation, waiting, and searching, news arrived: The 63-year-old Raisi, who had been in office for less than three years, along with Iranian Foreign Minister Abdollahian and seven other occupants on board, had all perished in the crash among the mountains.
这场被伊朗官方初步归咎于“技术故障”的坠机事件，发生在伊朗内忧外患的关键时刻：美国等西方国家加码制裁、美伊持续对抗的态势，令国家收入依赖石油出口的伊朗经济常年陷于困境，国内民众对通胀飙升、社会管控收紧的不满情绪日益蔓延；而在国门之外，从俄乌战事到巴以冲突，此起彼伏的地缘政治风暴正在不断堆高整个中东地区乃至全球的紧张局势，甚至一度将伊朗推至与宿敌以色列全面军事对抗的边缘。
The plane crash, initially attributed by Iranian officials to a "technical failure," occurred at a critical juncture for Iran, plagued by both internal and external challenges. The nation's economy has struggled for years due to dependence on oil exports, exacerbated by escalating sanctions from the U.S. and other Western countries, and the protracted U.S.-Iran confrontation. Domestically, public discontent has been growing amid soaring inflation and tightened social controls. Beyond its borders, geopolitical storms—from the Russia-Ukraine conflict to the Israel-Palestine strife—have heightened tensions across the Middle East and globally, at times bringing Iran to the brink of full-scale military confrontation with its arch-enemy, Israel.
在莱希等伊朗政府高官罹难引发举国震动的同时，伊朗官方仍试图对外呈现国政运行如常的景象，以显示在冲击面前的伊朗社会一如既往地充满韧性。
Amid the nationwide shock caused by the deaths of Raisi and other high-ranking Iranian officials, the Iranian government continues to project an image of normalcy in the country's governance, aiming to convey that Iranian society remains as resilient as ever in the face of such upheaval.
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- On May 19, 2024, Iranian President Raisi, Foreign Minister Abdollahian, and seven others died in a helicopter crash in northwestern Iran, leading to political uncertainty.
- Raisi’s death, attributed to a technical failure, occurred amid internal economic issues and heightened regional tensions; his pragmatic yet conservative policies focused on Iran's autonomy and regional diplomacy.
- Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei emphasized stability, assigning First Vice President Mokhber as acting president to organize a new election within 50 days.
On May 19, 2024, President Ebrahim Raisi's helicopter disappeared into thick fog in a mountainous region of northwestern Iran, plunging the country into political uncertainty. Several hours later, it was confirmed that the 63-year-old Raisi, alongside eight other prominent individuals, including Iranian Foreign Minister Abdollahian, had died in the crash [para. 1]. Iranian officials attributed the crash to a "technical failure" [para. 2].
The crash occurred during a turbulent time for Iran, which faces both domestic challenges, including a struggling economy and public discontent, and external pressures from various geopolitical conflicts [para. 2]. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, quickly reassured the public via social media, emphasizing that the governance of the country would not be affected [para. 4][para. 5]. Observers believe that as long as Khamenei remains in power, the country's policies will largely stay on track despite Raisi's death [para. 8].
Khamenei announced that First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber would assume Raisi's duties and called for a presidential election to be organized within 50 days [para. 13]. An election initially scheduled for 2025 is now set for June 28, 2024 [para. 16].
Historically, Iran's economy has struggled, particularly after the U.S. reimposed sanctions in 2018 following its withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal [para. 22]. Despite Conservatives gaining control of the government, dissatisfaction among Iranians remains high [para. 25]. Raisi's death raises questions about Iran's future political trajectory and potential power struggles within the conservative factions [para. 28].
Iran declared a five-day mourning period and held a public holiday to allow citizens to attend funeral ceremonies, while attempting to maintain normal economic and social activities [para. 31]. The crash site, discovered with the help of Turkish drones, was in the Varzaqan region near a dam Raisi had inaugurated earlier that day [para. 38][para. 39]. Initial investigations indicated no foul play, attributing the crash to technical reasons [para. 45][para. 50].
The helicopter was an old Bell 212 model, at least 45 years old, further hindered by a lack of parts due to U.S. sanctions [para. 51][para. 53]. This incident led to accusations against the U.S. for not maintaining the helicopters but the U.S. countered, stating every country must ensure the safety of its equipment [para. 55].
Observers were surprised that the Iranian public did not react strongly to the news of Raisi's death [para. 59]. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei receives significant support within Iran and Raisi was one of his close confidantes [para. 62].
Raisi, born in Mashhad, studied at the Qom Seminary and held several key judicial positions before becoming President [para. 67][para. 71]. His presidency focused on improving domestic conditions, tackling high inflation, unemployment, and social inequality [para. 89]. Raisi's death also occurred amid increasing protests and international tensions [para. 91].
Raisi's pragmatic foreign policy aimed at easing tensions with neighboring countries and improving economic ties globally, including joining organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS [para. 107][para. 115]. His efforts extended to improving relations with traditional Eastern powers, particularly China [para. 118].
Domestically, Iran's unique system of governance combines "Islamic Jurist Guardianship" with a form of separation of powers, where the Supreme Leader holds ultimate authority [para. 133]. Raisi's sudden death prompts inquiries into both the presidential and Supreme Leader successions. Current First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber is favored to be the new president [para. 157][para. 160], but wider implications for the succession of the Supreme Leader remain uncertain [para. 176].
Attention has also shifted to Khamenei's potential successors, including his son Mojtaba and the current Chairman of the Expediency Discernment Council, Sadeq Larijani [para. 180][para. 182]. Rumors of Khamenei's poor health persist, but he often appears in public to dispel these [para. 190]. The complexity of Iran's political system means that the IRGC might also play a significant role in determining the next Supreme Leader [para. 195][para. 197].
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