May 27, 2024 08:07 PM
OPINION
Commentary: Shanghai Should Take Action to Tackle Its Rock-Bottom Birthrate
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A child sits on his father's shoulders on the Bund in Shanghai in May 2021 as they look out over the skyline across the river. Photo: VCG
Recently, Shanghai released demographic statistics for 2023, revealing that the total fertility rate (TFR) for the city’s registered residents was 0.6, compared to 0.7 in 2022.
It is well-known that, exclusive of immigration, a country or region needs a TFR of 2.1 to maintain a stable population level. A TFR of 0.6 is only 28.6% of the replacement level.
Worldwide, South Korea has the lowest national fertility rate, with a TFR of 0.72 in 2023. However, Shanghai’s rate is even lower.
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- Shanghai's total fertility rate (TFR) decreased from 0.7 in 2022 to 0.6 in 2023, much lower than the replacement level of 2.1.
- High property prices, urbanization, delayed childbearing, fewer marriages, and historical family planning policies contribute to the low fertility rate.
- In 2023, Shanghai had 98,000 births and 158,000 deaths, resulting in a natural growth rate of -2.42‰.
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