ECONOMY

Caixin Summit: China’s Property Transition Will Take at Least Five More Years, Ex-Finance Chief Says

Published: Nov. 14, 2025 4:34 p.m. GMT+8

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Lou Jiwei at the 16th Caixin Summit on Nov. 14. Photo: Caixin

China’s property market downturn will persist and its transition to a new model will not be completed in the short term, requiring expansionary fiscal policy and structural reforms, according to former Finance Minister Lou Jiwei.

Speaking Friday at the 16th Caixin Summit in Beijing, Lou said China has likely averted a systemic crisis from its real estate sector, but the main risk now is a long-term drag on the economy.

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China’s property market downturn will persist for at least five more years, requiring expansionary fiscal policy and structural reforms, according to former Finance Minister Lou Jiwei.
Lou highlighted the importance of hukou (household registration) and land system reforms to stimulate housing demand but noted slow progress.
Debt-to-GDP ratios have stabilized since 2021, and Lou recommends introducing a property tax as a new local revenue source.

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