Chen Changhua: Examining Employment Prospects Through Public Companies' Annual Reports (AI Translation)
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文｜陈昌华
By Chen Changhua
各种宏观数据中，就业和工资一般都不太好统计。因此，上市公司的数据对我们深入了解中国的就业和工资状况，特别是细分行业的不同走势，有较大价值。
Among various macroeconomic data, employment and wages are generally difficult to quantify. Therefore, data from publicly listed companies hold significant value for us to gain a deeper understanding of China's employment and wage conditions, especially the different trends across sub-sectors.
近6200家在A股和香港上市的中国内地企业数据显示，其2023年雇员人数总计为3800多万，接近中国城镇4.7亿就业人员的10%，因此上市公司雇员人数一定程度上反映中国劳动市场的走向。
Data from nearly 6,200 mainland Chinese companies listed on the A-shares and Hong Kong stock markets indicate that their total number of employees in 2023 amounts to over 38 million. This figure represents close to 10% of China's 470 million urban workforce, suggesting that the number of employees in listed companies to some extent reflects the trends in China's labor market.
2019年至2023年的五年中，这6000多家上市公司的雇员人数从3200多万升至超3800万，平均每年增幅为3.4%，可以说，纵使经济情况有波动，就业总体还在增加。但近两年就业人数增长明显放缓，2020年和2021年上市公司雇员人数分别增加5.5%和6.3%，但2022年和2023年只增加2.9%和2.1%。2023年是从2020年起完全不受新冠疫情困扰的，但上市公司雇员人数增长是最低的。
From 2019 to 2023, the number of employees in these more than 6,000 listed companies increased from over 32 million to over 38 million, with an average annual growth rate of 3.4%. Despite economic fluctuations, overall employment has been on the rise. However, in the past two years, the growth in employment has significantly slowed. In 2020 and 2021, the number of employees in listed companies increased by 5.5% and 6.3% respectively, but in 2022 and 2023, it only increased by 2.9% and 2.1%. Notably, 2023 marked the first year since 2020 to be completely free from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, yet the employee growth rate of listed companies was the lowest.
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- Over 38 million people work for nearly 6,200 listed mainland Chinese companies, representing close to 10% of China's urban workforce.
- Employment growth in listed companies has slowed significantly in recent years, with notable declines in 2022 and 2023.
- Despite higher average wages in 2022 and 2023, layoffs increased, particularly in sectors like insurance, telecommunications, and real estate, driven by weak domestic demand.
Data from nearly 6,200 publicly listed Chinese companies show a total of over 38 million employees in 2023, approximately 10% of China’s 470 million urban workforce, suggesting they provide a useful indicator of labor market trends. From 2019 to 2023, these companies increased their workforce from over 32 million to over 38 million, with an average annual growth rate of 3.4%. However, employment growth slowed significantly in recent years, increasing by only 2.9% and 2.1% in 2022 and 2023, respectively [para. 1][para. 3].
The proportion of companies reducing their workforce also varied notably in recent years. In 2020, 38% of listed companies downsized. This dropped to 34% in 2021 but rebounded to 43% in 2022 due to renewed COVID-19 outbreaks and increased to 46% in 2023, the highest in recent years [para. 6].
Employee growth and layoffs varied substantially by industry. From 2021 to 2023, sectors such as automotive, auto parts, logistics, semiconductors, and chemicals experienced rapid employee growth, while industries like real estate and insurance saw declines. Industries that primarily serve external demand, such as exports, performed better than those reliant on domestic demand, like real estate and insurance [para. 7].
In 2023, industries with high layoff rates included insurance (100%), telecommunication services (67%, including many internet companies), real estate (63%), and logistics (61%). Meanwhile, sectors such as semiconductors (22%) and banking (25%) had lower layoff rates. The logistics industry, which experienced rapid employee growth previously, saw a decline in 2023 due to a slowdown in e-commerce [para. 8].
Regarding wages, listed companies saw significant variations. In 2020, 52% of companies reduced wages, resulting in a 1.8% overall decrease. However, in 2021, wages rose by 13% with only 14% of companies reducing pay. Despite about 30% of companies cutting wages in 2022 and 2023, average wages grew by 6% each year [para. 10][para. 11].
Industries with higher salary reductions in 2023 included logistics (50%), real estate (47%), insurance (45%), financial services (44%), banking (40%), and communication services (40%). In contrast, sectors with lower salary reduction rates were auto parts (24%), software (25%), healthcare (26%), and utilities (27%). These trends align with industries' overall employment changes [para. 14].
The analysis suggests that the labor market is healthier in industries driven by external demand, while those dependent on domestic demand struggle. By 2024, challenges such as protectionism, supply chain issues, and price competition may threaten industries reliant on external demand. Concurrently, industries dependent on internal demand like real estate, finance, internet, and logistics continue to face difficulties. Consequently, the number of employees at listed companies may keep slowing in 2024, potentially leading to more layoffs and pay cuts. Such a scenario would portend a grim outlook for consumption and real estate development [para. 15][para. 16][para. 17].
- 2019：
- The number of employees in publicly listed companies was over 32 million.
- 2020：
- The number of employees increased by 5.5%.
- 2020：
- 38% of publicly traded companies downsized due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
- 2020：
- The average wage dropped by 1.8%; 52% of companies saw a decline in wages.
- 2021：
- The number of employees increased by 6.3%.
- 2021：
- The proportion of publicly traded companies that laid off employees dropped to 34%.
- 2021：
- The overall average wage rose by 13%; only 14% of listed companies reduced wages.
- 2022：
- The number of employees increased by 2.9%.
- 2022：
- 43% of publicly traded companies downsized again due to recurring outbreaks of the pandemic.
- 2022：
- About 30% of listed companies implemented wage cuts, but the average wage increased by 6%.
- 2023：
- The number of employees increased by 2.1% to over 38 million.
- 2023：
- 46% of publicly traded companies laid off employees, the highest in recent years.
- 2023：
- About 30% of listed companies implemented wage cuts, but the average wage increased by 6%.
- By 2024：
- Increased threats of protectionism and supply chain decoupling might affect industries driven by external demand.
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