ECONOMY

Nomura Expects China’s GDP Growth to Slow to 4.5% in 2024

Published: Sep. 5, 2024 4:09 a.m. GMT+8

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A solar cell factory in Jinhua, Zhejiang province, on Aug. 30, 2024.

Amid a persistent slowdown in the property market, Nomura Securities has given a cautious forecast for China’s economic growth, expecting it to be limited to 4.5% in 2024 and 4.0% in 2025, slower than the 5% growth in the first half of this year.

Nomura Securities joins a number of global banks expecting China’s economy to grow more slowly in the second half, with UBS the latest to slash its forecast, following in the wake of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co.

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Nomura Securities forecasts China's economic growth at 4.5% in 2024 and 4.0% in 2025, slower than 5% in H1 2024.
Factors cited include a persistent property market slump (10.2% investment fall in Jan-Jul 2024), slow retail sales, and a sharp decline (>80%) in equity financing.
Nomura's chief China economist suggests increased central government fiscal spending, especially on social security, to boost consumption.

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Who’s Who

Nomura Securities: Nomura Securities anticipates China's economic growth to slow significantly, forecasting 4.5% in 2024 and 4.0% in 2025. This cautious outlook is due to the persistent property market downturn, weaker consumer spending, and challenges in new industries and financial markets. Nomura joins other global banks expecting slower growth in the second half of the year.

UBS: UBS, a global bank, recently lowered its forecast for China's 2024 GDP growth to 4.6% from 4.9% on August 30. This revision was due to the ongoing real estate downturn. Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS, emphasized that the property market's failure to recover is exacerbating economic headwinds. UBS was the latest among several global banks, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase, to slash China's economic outlook.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is a global bank that has already lowered its forecast for China's economic growth. It is among several international financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and UBS, that expect China's economy to grow more slowly in the second half of the year.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.: JPMorgan Chase & Co. is a global bank that has lowered its forecast for China's economic growth. The article indicates that it is among several institutions, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and UBS, that expect China's economy to slow down in the second half of the year.

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What Happened When

First half of 2024：: China's economic growth was at 5%.

First seven months of 2024：: Investment in real estate development fell by 10.2% year-on-year and sales by the top 100 housing enterprises dropped by 36.5%.