China Will Need 9,000 New Aircraft Over Next Two Decades, C919 Plane Designer Says

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A C919 passenger plane of China Southern Airlines is seen at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport in Guangzhou, Aug. 29. Photo: VCG

China will need 9,000 new planes over the next 20 years to meet the “huge demand” in the global civil aviation market, said the chief designer of the country’s first homegrown airliner.

China operated 4,270 aircraft by the end of 2023, including 4,013 passenger planes and 257 freighters, data from the Civil Aviation Administration showed.

Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has given a “huge boost” to Chinese airlines, said Wu Guanghui of Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China Ltd. (Comac), developer of the narrow-body C919 airliner. Since the BRI was launched in 2013, the number of routes from China to partner countries has surged from 439 to 19,397, with 7,616 weekly flights, Wu said at an industry forum Thursday.

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China will need 9,000 new planes in the next 20 years, with a current fleet of 4,270 aircraft.
The BRI has significantly increased the number of flight routes from China, boosting the aviation market.
Comac predicts global demand for 40,000 new airplanes, and China's commercial fleet is expected to double by 2043, with the C919 receiving recent significant orders and approvals.

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Who’s Who

Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China Ltd. (Comac): Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China Ltd. (Comac) is the developer of the narrow-body C919 airliner and is working on the C929 wide-body jet. The company predicts that global airlines will need over 40,000 new airplanes worth $6 trillion over the next 20 years. Deliveries of the C919 have accelerated, with Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines receiving jets. Despite pandemic disruptions and supply chain issues, Comac aims to deliver 15 C919s this year.

Air China Ltd.: Air China Ltd. (601111.SH) received its first C919 jet last week, part of a $20.7 billion order for 200 jets. This delivery means Air China is one of three airlines now flying the C919, along with China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines. The deliveries indicate that regulators have approved the C919 for mass production.

China Southern Airlines Co. Ltd.: China Southern Airlines Co. Ltd. (600029.SH) recently received its first C919 aircraft as part of a $20.7 billion order for 200 jets. It is one of China's "Big Three" state-owned airlines, along with Air China Ltd. and China Eastern Airlines Corp. Ltd., which have collectively signed up for over 300 C919 jets.

China Eastern Airlines Corp. Ltd.: China Eastern Airlines Corp. Ltd. (600115.SH) is one of China's "Big Three" state-owned airlines. It is among the airlines that have signed up for over 300 C919 jets, a new narrow-body airliner developed by Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China Ltd. (Comac).

Boeing Co.: Boeing Co. projects that China will need 8,830 new airplanes over the next 20 years, according to its Commercial Market Outlook released in July. The Asian country's commercial fleet is expected to more than double to 9,740 airplanes by 2043, with an annual passenger traffic growth rate of 5.9%, surpassing the global average of 4.7%.

Airbus SE: The article mentions that China's narrow-body C919 airliner, developed by Comac, is touted as a rival to Airbus SE's A320, along with Boeing's 737. No additional specific details about Airbus SE are provided in the text.

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What Happened When

2023：: Russia reportedly quit the C929 wide-body jet project.

By the end of 2023：: China operated 4,270 aircraft, including 4,013 passenger planes and 257 freighters.

As of the end of 2023：: China had signed air transport agreements with 132 countries under the Belt and Road Initiative and had direct flights with 78 of them.

Earlier this year, 2024：: Boeing Co. released its Commercial Market Outlook, projecting China will require 8,830 new airplanes over the next 20 years.

July, 2024：: Boeing Co. released its Commercial Market Outlook.

Aug. 26, 2024：: Darren Hulst of Boeing made a press release about China's aviation market growth.

Thursday, September 5, 2024：: Wu Guanghui of Comac spoke at an industry forum about the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on Chinese airlines.