Commentary: China’s Export Beat Belies a Slowing Trend

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China’s year-on-year export growth in August exceeded expectations, but month-on-month momentum has been ebbing since May due to tariff hikes on Chinese goods and weakening demand in the U.S. And the trend is likely to continue.

Goods exports rose 8.7% year-on-year in dollar terms last month, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, faster than the 7% growth the previous month and beating the market forecast of a 7% increase.

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China's export growth in August rose by 8.7% year-on-year, surpassing forecasts despite declining monthly momentum since May.
Factors contributing to the growth included deferred shipments due to Typhoon Gaemi and reactions to anti-dumping investigations.
Significant contributions came from ships and automobiles, with shipbuilders securing 95 global orders and auto exports hitting record highs.

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Who’s Who

China Securities Co. Ltd.: China Securities Co. Ltd. is a financial services firm where Zhou Junzhi serves as the chief macro analyst.

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What Happened When

May 2024：: Month-on-month momentum of China's exports began ebbing due to tariff hikes on Chinese goods and weakening demand in the U.S.

July 2024：: Vietnam initiated an investigation into Chinese hot-rolled steel products.

July 2024：: Violent clashes broke out across Bangladesh, disrupting supply chains in the clothing export sector.

August 2024：: China's year-on-year export growth reached 8.7%, exceeding expectations.

August 2024：: Chinese steel exports saw a 16% month-on-month increase, the highest for the month since 2010.

August 2024：: Chinese shipbuilders secured 95 of the 106 total new ship orders worldwide.

August 2024：: China’s auto exports rebounded, achieving record highs despite new EU tariffs.

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