U.S. Election Showdown: What Could Trump 2.0 Mean? (AI Translation)
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文｜财新周刊 曾佳 发自美国首都华盛顿，路尘 发自北京
By Caixin Weekly, Zeng Jia reporting from Washington, D.C., Lu Chen reporting from Beijing
堪称美国现代选举史上竞选过程最富戏剧性、结果最难料的一届美国大选，将在全球瞩目中于11月5日登场。直至距离决胜投票日仅剩10日之际，对大选结果起决定性影响的摇摆州仍在上演着异乎寻常的激战。几乎所有民调和模型的推演都显示，民主党总统候选人、现任副总统哈里斯与共和党总统候选人、前任总统特朗普的胜算均为五五开。
Considered one of the most dramatic and unpredictable election races in modern American history, the U.S. presidential election is set to take place on November 5 with global attention fixed on it. Even with only 10 days remaining until the decisive voting day, the swing states that will have a decisive impact on the election's outcome are witnessing unusually fierce battles. Nearly all polls and models suggest that the odds of victory are evenly split between Democratic presidential candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump.
《华盛顿邮报》10月上旬对七个摇摆州的民调显示，78岁的特朗普和60岁的哈里斯的民意支持率，在各种意义上都不相上下。在注册选民中，哈里斯的坚定支持者和特朗普的坚定支持者占比完全一样，均为37%。可能会支持哈里斯的注册选民比例，同样与可能会支持特朗普的人数一致，均为10%。二者相加，除6%的选民表示尚未决定意向外，双方的潜在支持率都为47%。
An early October poll by The Washington Post across seven swing states reveals that the approval ratings for 78-year-old Donald Trump and 60-year-old Kamala Harris are virtually neck and neck in every sense. Among registered voters, those who firmly support Harris and those steadfast behind Trump each account for 37%. The proportion of registered voters who might support Harris is also identical to those possibly backing Trump, both standing at 10%. Combined, aside from 6% of voters who remain undecided, the potential support rate for both stands at 47%.
《纽约时报》10月21日发布的民调显示，特朗普和哈里斯在所有战场州的差距都不超过1个百分点。在北卡罗来纳、宾夕法尼亚和密歇根三州，双方的差距甚至未达0.2个百分点。无论在哪一份民调中，双方的优劣势对比都没有脱离统计误差区间。
A poll released by The New York Times on October 21 indicates that the gap between Trump and Harris is within 1 percentage point across all battleground states. In North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, the difference between the two is even less than 0.2 percentage points. In every poll, their comparative strengths and weaknesses remain within the margin of error.
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- The U.S. presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is highly contested with evenly split odds in key swing states, despite dramatic events like an assassination attempt on Trump and Biden's withdrawal from the race.
- Polls show Harris and Trump are nearly tied, with high voter turnout expected and early voting surpassing previous records amid Republican enthusiasm for early voting.
- Major topics include the economy, border security, and abortion rights, with both candidates courting swing state voters, focusing on groups like minorities and suburban women.
The U.S. presidential election, set for November 5, is shaping up to be one of the most dramatic and unpredictable races in modern American history [para. 1]. With only 10 days to go, swing states are witnessing fierce battles between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump [para. 1]. Polls suggest they are virtually neck and neck, with support rates around 47% for both [para. 2]. An early poll indicated Harris had a slight advantage over Trump, which has since diminished as Trump gains ground [para. 3].
Polls reveal a very close race in battleground states, such as North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, where the gap between Trump and Harris is within the margin of error [para. 3]. Despite Harris replacing President Biden as the candidate, her previous polling advantage has been erased [para. 4]. A New York Times poll shows a slight improvement for Trump in swing states, with Fox News also noting Trump's 2-point lead over Harris [4,5].
Opinions among voter groups are polarizing, with gender playing a significant role [para. 6]. Men tend to support Trump, while women favor Harris [para. 6]. Interestingly, African American and Latino men are increasingly supporting Trump, a demographic both candidates are competing for [para. 6]. On key issues like the economy, immigration, and abortion rights, Harris has an advantage over Trump, though Trump leads on economic concerns like inflation [para. 7].
Early voting has reached record highs, with over 30 million Americans participating [para. 8]. Democratic voters traditionally favor mail-in and early voting, but this year Republican enthusiasm for early in-person voting is also notable [para. 8]. Changes in voter registration trends show a decline in Democratic advantages in states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina [para. 8]. Past experiences and unexpected events have reignited voter enthusiasm, possibly leading to record turnout this election [para. 9].
Both candidates target low-engagement voters in swing states [para. 11]. Experts suggest the election outcome may hinge on a narrow margin in these states, just like in 2020 when Biden secured victory through crucial swing state wins [para. 11]. The race remains highly competitive, with each candidate's strategy focusing on energizing voters who may be undecided or less politically engaged [para. 11].
In summary, the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election is unprecedented in its dynamics and challenges, reflecting intense competition between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump [para. 1]-[para. 11]. As both candidates engage in fierce battles over key swing states, mobilize voter bases, and respond to historical polling errors, they hope to shape America's future leadership. This race is not only a test of policy and strategy but a measure of national sentiment, hinting at lasting implications for both American and global affairs [para. 11].
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