Analysis: U.S.-China Strategic Rivalry Set to Intensify Regardless of Who Wins White House

A bipartisan agreement in Washington suggests that regardless of whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump takes office, the strategic competition between the U.S. and China is likely to intensify.[para. 1] Trump has shown a more aggressive attitude towards China, promising significant economic separation in his campaign, including raising tariffs on Chinese goods to 60% and imposing greater restrictions on Chinese investments and visas.[para. 2][para. 3] His policies could heighten tensions between the nations, potentially impacting vital sectors such as semiconductors and biotechnology.[para. 3]

Trump's approach could allow for imaginative opportunities for Chinese companies in the American market, possibly permitting ventures like Chinese electric vehicle makers opening factories in the U.S. under conditions like hiring American workers.[para. 4] A more drastic measure could see Trump putting major Chinese firms like Huawei on the Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) List, which involves severe sanctions and could affect global supply chains and introduce secondary sanctions on countries using Huawei tech.[para. 5][para. 6][para. 7] Such measures might replace the current "small yard, high fence" strategy, leaving tariffs as a fixed element rather than a negotiating tool.[para. 8] However, this trade conflict has already affected American companies through reduced revenues and R&D budgets, lessening U.S. competitiveness and diminishing insights into China.[para. 9]

Experts believe that Harris would likely retain the current administration's policy, focusing on alliances and counteracting China's growing influence, although with minor adjustments.[para. 10] The Biden administration's focus has been on engagement across economic, military, and technological fronts and strengthening regional alliances, which Harris is expected to continue.[para. 11][para. 12] Maintaining diplomatic channels, avoiding total economic separation, and cooperating in mutual interest areas would be her strategy to manage U.S.-China competition responsibly.[para. 17]

Harris, in her public address, emphasizes reinforcing U.S. competitiveness in technology and strong domestic workforce support, aligning with Biden's policy direction by maintaining or possibly heightening tariff levels towards China while adopting more favorable terms for allies.[para. 13][para. 14][para. 19] However, she critiques Trump's tariffs policy as detrimental to consumers, seeing them as an unwelcome financial burden.[para. 15] Although the Biden administration has kept many of Trump's tariffs, indicating continued pressure in high-tech and renewable sectors, Harris's specific plans on adjusting current tariffs remain unclear.[para. 17][para. 18]

Regardless of who leads, it is anticipated that Washington will maintain tight scrutiny on U.S.-China investments concerning national security and political sensitivity while expanding restrictions on exporting high-tech goods like semiconductors.[para. 22]