[Weekly Preview] How Will China Respond to Trump’s Opposition to a Multilateral World View? (AI Translation)
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文｜财新周刊 曾佳 发自秘鲁利马，侯吴婷 发自巴西里约热内卢
By Caixin Weekly's Zeng Jia from Lima, Peru, and Hou Wuting from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
2024年11月中旬，随着美国大选结果尘埃落定，全球目光转向南美大陆：在位于南美洲西部和东部、分别濒临太平洋和大西洋的秘鲁利马和巴西里约热内卢，一年一度的亚太经合组织（APEC）和二十国集团（G20）领导人峰会相继举办。
In mid-November 2024, as the dust settles on the U.S. election results, global attention shifts to the South American continent: In Lima, Peru, and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil—countries located on the western and eastern coasts of South America, adjacent to the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, respectively—the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and Group of 20 (G20) leaders' summits are set to take place one after the other.
正逢南半球步入夏季，在明媚的阳光和温润的海风中，全球主要国家领导人和政商界领袖汇聚一堂，摆在眼前的是一项项愈显严峻和棘手的全球性挑战。盘绕在所有人心头的最主要问题仍是：在奉行“美国优先”的特朗普即将重返白宫之际，全球深化多边和区域经贸合作的势头，以及各国携手应对气候变化、解决地缘政治冲突的努力，将迎来怎样一波新的冲击？
As the Southern Hemisphere ushers in summer, under the bright sun and humid sea breeze, leaders from major global countries and business figures gather to face increasingly severe and complex global challenges. The pressing question on everyone's mind is: with Trump, who champions "America First," poised to return to the White House, what new wave of impact will unfold on the momentum of deepening multilateral and regional economic and trade cooperation globally, and on efforts by countries to jointly tackle climate change and resolve geopolitical conflicts?
作为今年两场重要多边峰会的主办国，秘鲁和巴西不仅自然气候、历史文化、人文背景迥异，在全球地缘政治中的定位也颇为不同。
As hosts of this year's two major multilateral summits, Peru and Brazil not only differ significantly in natural climate, historical culture, and human background but also hold distinctly different positions in global geopolitics.
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- The APEC and G20 summits in South America saw global leaders focus on economic cooperation and climate change amid the impending return of Trump's "America First" policies, raising concerns about multilateral relationships and U.S.-China dynamics.
- Leaders from the U.S. and China, including Presidents Biden and Xi, discussed nuclear arms control and military communication, while the G20 joint declaration prioritized poverty, hunger, and climate change but was marked by geopolitical tensions.
- In Latin America, the Chancay Port in Peru highlights China's growing influence, while the region faces pressure to align with major powers amid concerns over Trump's policies affecting trade and geopolitical stability.
In mid-November 2024, the world turned its focus to Lima, Peru, and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, where the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and Group of 20 (G20) leaders' summits were set to take place consecutively. These meetings occurred amidst significant global challenges, marked by the potential return of Donald Trump as U.S. president. Concerns pervaded over his "America First" policies, which could impact international trade and geopolitical efforts regarding climate change. [para. 1]
Peru and Brazil's hosting of these summits highlighted their varied approaches and roles in geopolitics. Peru, grappling with internal political instability, kept foreign affairs at a low priority. Conversely, Brazil, led by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, aimed to strengthen its leadership within the Global South and bolster its regional power status. [para. 3]
APEC, with 21 member economies, represents significant global economic interests. At this year's APEC, Peru prioritized trade inclusivity, economic sustainability, and energy transition. Efforts included enhanced China-Peru trade relations, exemplified by the Chancay Port project. This port, backed by Chinese investment, signifies Peru's substantial ties with China, its largest trading partner. During the summit, China's President Xi Jinping engaged outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden in pivotal talks, underscoring issues like the control of nuclear weapons and bilateral communication, eventually reaffirming guiding principles for China-U.S. relations. [para. 5][para. 7]
The G20 summit shortly followed in Brazil, where discussions extended to broader geopolitical tensions. The G20 is considered a crucial global coordination mechanism, uniting major economies across the globe. This summit marked the African Union's first participation following the European Union, reflecting the globalization and heightened influence of the "Global South" nations. However, Trump's prospective presidency stirred apprehension about potential disruptions to multilateralism, amplified by ongoing global conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war. Concerns emerged that Trump's policies could fracture the G20 framework, hindering international cooperation and responses to crises. [para. 14][para. 21]
Business leaders and political figures expressed anxiety about Trump's return to policies favoring unilateralism and protectionism. Leaders like Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and New Zealand's Christopher Luxon voiced their commitment to maintaining balanced international negotiations and rules-based orders amid trading tensions. Meanwhile, concerns loomed over Trump's potential impacts on economic policies, global inflation, and market dynamics. [para. 25][para. 33]
Latin America's geopolitical positioning also surfaced during these meetings. Countries like Mexico, bound by proximity to the U.S., potentially face challenges like increased tariffs under a new Trump administration. In contrast, Peru maintained a balanced diplomatic approach between major economic powers, emphasizing cooperation over polarization. [para. 43][para. 45]
Notably, Chinese investments in Latin America, especially those stemming from the Belt and Road Initiative, signify deepening ties and the potential for enhanced China-Latin America cooperation. Projects like Chancay Port and broader trade engagements underline this growing economic partnership, with China's investment strategy focused on long-term infrastructure development and trade optimization. [para. 52]
This context unfolded against the backdrop of diminished focus on the Russia-Ukraine conflict at the G20, reflecting challenges in achieving consensus among member nations. Brazil's hosting stance was perceived as neutral, resisting Western sanctions and proposing peace initiatives to mediate the crisis. European nations had mixed reactions to the summit's declarations, with leaders expressing dissatisfaction over watered-down statements on Russia's involvement. Yet, amid rising geopolitical tensions and a potential return to more insular policies under Trump, there remains a cautious acceptance of the complexities involved in navigating these international landscapes. [para. 61][para. 81]
- JPMorgan Chase
摩根大通 - The article mentions JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who participated in the APEC Business Leaders Summit. He warned about the potential negative impacts of Trump's tariff policies, emphasizing that if the U.S. harms other countries to strengthen itself, it could face retaliation. Dimon also expressed concerns about geopolitical risks such as trade frictions, which could impact corporate profits and global economies, particularly in developing countries.
- Marubeni Corporation
丸红株式会社 - Marubeni Corporation is one of Japan's five major integrated trading companies. Its president, Fumiya Kokubu, previously served as the head of Japan Foreign Trade Council. The company is prepared for the uncertainty that Trump's return may bring to trade and supply chains, with all companies maintaining a "Plan B." Kokubu, an APEC Business Advisory Council representative for Japan, expressed preparedness for the unpredictable nature of Trump's policies.
- COSCO Shipping Group
中国远洋海运集团 - COSCO Shipping Group invested in and controls the Chancay Port project in Peru. This port, located 75 kilometers north of Lima, is a significant part of the Belt and Road Initiative, aiming to facilitate trade between Peru and China by reducing shipping time and costs. The project was completed in October and began trial operations in mid-November, first opening direct shipping routes to Shanghai.
- Fourth Paradigm
第四范式 - Fourth Paradigm is a Chinese artificial intelligence company mentioned as having successful experiences in digital economy initiatives. Its CEO, Dai Wenyu, highlighted the challenges faced in implementing AI technologies in Latin America, including the need to tailor systems to local conditions and navigate complex local interactions.
- LONGi Green Energy
隆基绿能 - LONGi Green Energy, focusing on the renewable energy sector, aims to expand its market in Latin America, with particular interest in Mexico due to its large population and untapped solar potential. They have prepared to establish operations in Mexico depending on U.S. election outcomes and local government reactions. Moreover, in response to U.S. tariffs, LONGi has considered setting up manufacturing facilities within the U.S., highlighting their adaptability to geopolitical changes.
- Early November 2024：
- Papua New Guinea suddenly announces withdrawal from COP29.
- Mid-November 2024：
- As the dust settles on the U.S. election results, global attention shifts to the South American continent for the APEC and G20 summits.
- As of Mid-November 2024：
- Outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the APEC summit in Peru.
- After Mid-November 2024：
- The G20 summit takes place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, shortly after the APEC summit in Lima, Peru.
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