In Depth: Warming Climate Threatens Chinese Farmers’ Livelihoods

Climate change significantly impacts China's agriculture sector, as seen in Heilongjiang province, where farmer Xu Xiujian began harvesting soybeans early after early spring rains in mid-April. This case reflects a larger climatic shift in China, affecting cropping patterns [para. 1][para. 2]. Over the last 40 years, China's average temperature rose 1.5°C, as reported by researcher Liao Yaoming from the National Climate Center. This shift enables cultivation over higher altitudes and latitudes, expanding areas for crops like corn and rice, and altering wheat, soybean, and cotton varieties for longer growth periods and higher yields [para. 3][para. 4]. Consequently, major agricultural provinces have adapted to introduce rice in previously unsuitable Northeast regions and increased soybean cultivation in Inner Mongolia by 145% in a decade, driven by government subsidies and technological advances [para. 5][para. 6]. However, warming also presents challenges like pest issues and natural disasters, as extreme rainfall increased 8% per decade, and drought-affected areas expanded by 1.7% per decade [para. 6][para. 7].

The northward shift in crop production, facilitated by rising cumulative temperatures (485°C over the past four decades), has redefined climate zoning in China's agricultural strategies, expanding areas for crops like soybeans, rice, corn, and wheat in places such as Heilongjiang [para. 8][para. 9][para. 10][para. 11]. For example, in Huma county, previously dominated by wheat, 90% of its 1.1 million mu of arable land is now devoted to soybeans [para. 12][para. 13]. Similarly, Inner Mongolia's soybean growing areas expanded northward by 0.911 degrees latitude, creating an additional 7.4 million mu of potential land [para. 13]. Warmer conditions in Henan province have also allowed less frost-resistant wheat varieties to move northward [para. 14].

Chinese agricultural production has also been shaped by policy changes, technological advances, and consumer demand. National soybean subsidies, introduced in 2015, boosted Inner Mongolia's soybean planting by 150%. Similarly, areas in Heilongjiang switched from soybeans to rice paddies starting from the early 2010s, influenced by government policies and increased rice prices [para. 15][para. 16][para. 17]. Despite previous rice expansion, current national policies emphasize reducing soybean imports and promoting food security through crop rotation, emphasizing an increase in soybean planting [para. 18][para. 19]. Technological innovations like high-density corn varieties have additionally contributed to shifts in crop production [para. 20][para. 21], while consumer preferences now demand higher-quality products, influencing wheat varieties in Henan [para. 22][para. 23].

However, climate change also increases the frequency of extreme weather, challenging agricultural productivity with events like typhoons and unusual droughts affecting crop yields [para. 24][para. 25]. In Northwest China's apple-producing Shaanxi province, cold snaps severely impacted fruit production, illustrating broader climate risks [para. 26]. Warmer winters also exacerbate pest problems, as seen in aphid and spider mite increases, attributed to milder winters and monoculture practices [para. 27]. In response, crop rotation subsidies have been introduced to combat monoculture effects [para. 28]. To better manage agriculture under changing climates, the Chinese government is conducting agricultural zoning surveys to update old data, reflecting recent environmental changes and planning adaptations accordingly [para. 29][para. 30].

Overall, while the warming climate allows expanded agricultural opportunities in northern China, careful management and adaptation to new environmental and policy conditions are essential to ensure sustainable agriculture and food security [para. 3][para. 5][para. 7][para. 30].