Analysis: How Trump’s Policies Might Defeat the ‘Trump Trade’
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If the U.S. imposes a 10% tariff on all countries in 2025, without effective fiscal measures to offset the economic damage, the dollar may not grow as strong as it did during the first round of tariffs in 2018. Photo: VCG
With Donald Trump about to return to the White House and the Republican Party set to control both houses of Congress, the “Trump trade” has prevailed, with the market showing the highest level of consensus in shorting U.S. Treasurys and going long on the U.S. dollar.
This reflects expectations of high growth and high inflation in the U.S. economy as economic characteristics usually determine asset performance.
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