What Lies Ahead for the Russia-Ukraine War After the Trump Turn? (AI Translation)
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文｜财新周刊 路尘
By Lu Chen, Caixin Weekly
自2022年2月24日至今，俄乌冲突爆发已满三周年。自2022年11月以后，双方交火线再未发生大的变动，但激烈交火从未停止，2024年下半年起，国际社会有关俄乌和谈的呼声渐起，但在俄罗斯与乌克兰各自公布的谈判立场截然相反，而美欧双方仍强调谈判时点将由乌克兰全权决定的情况下，谈判进程同样陷于停滞。
As of now, three years have passed since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which began on February 24, 2022. Since November 2022, there have been no major changes along the front lines, but intense fighting has continued unabated. Starting in the latter half of 2024, there has been a growing international call for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. However, the negotiation processes remain at a standstill due to sharply opposing stances publicly presented by both Russia and Ukraine, with the U.S. and Europe continuing to emphasize that Ukraine will have full autonomy in deciding the timing of negotiations.
出乎全世界意料的是，在美国新任总统特朗普“迅速解决俄乌冲突”的指导方针下，第一个在美国的设想中被抛弃的不是乌克兰的领土，而是欧洲在乌克兰危机中的谈判地位。
To the surprise of the entire world, under the new U.S. President Donald Trump's guideline to "quickly resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict," the first entity to be abandoned in America's conceptual framework was not Ukrainian territory, but rather Europe's negotiating position in the Ukraine crisis.
四天内，本届美国政府三位重量级人物相继表态，猝不及防地将欧洲推离了既有轨道：2月12日，特朗普与俄罗斯总统普京进行了直接通话，宣布美国将派出磋商团队与俄罗斯展开停战谈判。此举不仅坐实了长期以来外界对于特朗普时代美俄可能独自媾和、绕开乌克兰立场的担忧，打破了美国长期以来与欧洲共同坚持的“没有乌克兰就没有涉乌克兰危机谈判”的基本立场，并且完全放弃了与欧洲进行协同。
Within four days, three heavyweights of the current U.S. administration made consecutive statements that unexpectedly pushed Europe off its existing trajectory. On February 12, President Trump held a direct conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, announcing that the U.S. would send a delegation to commence ceasefire negotiations with Russia. This move not only confirmed longstanding concerns about the possibility of U.S.-Russia rapprochement under Trump's leadership, bypassing Ukraine's position, but also shattered the fundamental stance the U.S. had shared with Europe: "no negotiations over the Ukraine crisis without Ukraine." It entirely abandoned coordinated efforts with Europe.
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- Since late 2024, international calls for peace talks in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict have increased, with negotiations stalled due to opposing stances.
- Under U.S. President Trump, the U.S. initiated negotiations directly with Russia, sidelining Ukraine and Europe's previous joint stance.
- Ukraine faces pressure to sign resource-related agreements with the U.S., amid an unstable global reaction to America's changing policies in the conflict.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been ongoing for three years since it began on February 24, 2022, with no major changes along the frontlines since November 2022. Despite intense fighting, calls for peace talks have increased internationally, although negotiation attempts have faced deadlock due to stark differences between Russia and Ukraine. The U.S. emphasizes Ukraine’s autonomy in deciding when to negotiate. However, under new U.S. President Donald Trump, there has been a surprising shift in the U.S. position, favoring rapprochement with Russia and sidelining Europe’s role in negotiations [para. 1][para. 2].
President Trump initiated direct negotiations with Russia, diverging from the previous U.S.-Europe stance that negotiations shouldn't occur without Ukraine. This move created strategic anxiety in Europe, especially after U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth downplayed the idea of Ukraine restoring pre-2014 borders and suggested future European military involvement in Ukraine be a "non-NATO" operation [para. 3][para. 4].
Further talks between U.S. and Russian representatives in Riyadh on February 18 highlighted the Trump administration's focus on bilateral relations with Russia. Trump’s comments after these talks suggested that he viewed Ukraine's refusal to negotiate as the cause of ongoing war and casualties. He also criticized Ukrainian President Zelensky, labeling him as a dictator and misuser of American aid, escalating tensions [para. 5][para. 6].
France’s President Macron called emergency meetings with European leaders, but these meetings displayed Europe’s lack of cohesive leadership in response to the U.S. shift. The changing dynamics reflect a war shaping the global landscape [para. 7]. The Trump administration, criticized for inconsistency, has lacked a concrete peace plan, with Trump having to revise his ambitious promise to resolve the conflict within 24 hours [para. 8].
Discussions on resource negotiations have emerged, with Trump suggesting that rare earth elements from Ukraine could be exchanged for American aid. A draft "mineral development agreement" implied extensive U.S. benefits from Ukrainian resources, sparking resistance from Ukraine [para. 9][para. 10]. Despite this, discussions continue, highlighting the U.S.'s expectations for substantial returns on its investments in Ukraine [para. 11][para. 12].
The personnel management within Trump’s team remains unclear, contributing to diplomatic ambiguity. Figures like General Keith Kellogg have been involved but face marginalization within Trump's team [para. 13][para. 14]. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Mark Rubio has had difficulty asserting authority amid shifting U.S. policies [para. 15].
Russian and Ukrainian positions remain rigid and contradictory, with Russia holding firm to its peace conditions and Ukraine resisting any unilateral negotiation terms. Ukrainian aid, primarily from Europe, remains substantial but insufficient compared to the needed fiscal efforts [para. 16][para. 17][para. 18].
The Trump administration’s shifts have sparked discourse on European peacekeeping missions in Ukraine, complicating the support dynamic. European unity is under threat as they face pressure to respond effectively. The UK's declaration to lead peacekeeping efforts adds another dimension to European responses. France and Germany express uncertainty and division on strategic actions [para. 19][para. 20].
The course of the U.S.-Russia relationship plays a crucial role in further developments of the conflict. Former President Trump seeks to establish a ceasefire by May, but Russia's advantage perception on the battlefield could inhibit this. Despite newfound U.S.-Russia relations under Trump, the continuation of underlying national interests might hinder long-lasting cooperation [para. 21][para. 22][para. 23].
Ultimately, the global community remains uncertain about the resolution of the Ukraine conflict, with Trump's peace efforts heavily scrutinized for their viability and potential impact on the geopolitical landscape. The complexity of the conflict underscores the challenges of securing a reliable peace agreement [para. 24].
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