ECONOMY

China Provinces Set Cautious 2026 Growth Targets

Published: Feb. 2, 2026 12:48 p.m. GMT+8

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China’s provincial governments are starting a new five-year planning cycle on a cautious note, with most maintaining or lowering their economic growth targets for 2026 compared with last year, signaling continued economic headwinds.

As of Saturday, 22 of the Chinese mainland’s 31 provincial-level regions had announced their economic growth targets for this year, according to Caixin calculations.

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Most Chinese provinces are maintaining or lowering their 2026 economic growth targets, indicating persistent economic challenges.
Out of 22 regions, 14 lowered targets, 7 kept them unchanged, and only Jiangxi raised its target.
Analysts expect China’s 2026 national GDP growth goal to be set at a range of 4.5%-5%; 2025 growth was 5%.

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Nomura: Nomura's Chief China Economist, Lu Ting, suggests that China's provincial growth targets indicate Beijing is likely to set this year's national growth goal within a range of 4.5% to 5%. A single target of approximately 4.5% is considered a secondary option.

AI generated, for reference only