ECONOMY

China Property Slump to Drag on 2026 Growth, Citi Says

Published: Nov. 14, 2025 2:20 p.m. GMT+8

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Yu Xiangrong.

China’s property slump is expected to persist through 2026, acting as a major drag on economic growth despite fiscal stimulus, according to Citigroup’s chief China economist.

Speaking at the group’s annual China Conference Thursday, Yu Xiangrong said he forecast China’s GDP would grow 4.7% next year, likely falling short of the government’s expected target of “around 5%.” He attributed the difficulty to a policy dilemma in the real estate sector, where Beijing is trying to stabilize the market without reinflating a bubble.

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China’s property slump is expected to persist through 2026, dampening economic growth despite fiscal stimulus.
Citigroup forecasts China’s 2025 GDP growth at 4.7%, below the government’s “around 5%” target, due to ongoing real estate challenges.
Weak property demand stems from a shrinking population, slow urbanization, and sluggish income growth; housing inventory would take over 30 months to clear.

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Who’s Who

Citigroup: Citigroup's chief China economist, Yu Xiangrong, forecasts China's GDP growth at 4.7% next year, potentially missing the "around 5%" government target. He attributes this to an ongoing property slump, which he expects to continue through 2026. Yu believes China's strategy of "supporting but not stimulating" the property market will prevent a quick stabilization.

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