China to Set Economic Path to 2030 Amid Property Slump and Tech Race
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China’s top leaders are gathering from Oct. 20 to 23 to deliberate on the country’s economic and social blueprint for the next five years, as the nation navigates a complex transition away from old growth engines amid fierce global competition.
The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Communist Party Central Committee will review proposals for the 15th Five-Year Plan, which will run from 2026 to 2030. The new plan comes as China grapples with a historic downturn in its property market, a declining population and an intensifying global race for technological supremacy.
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- China’s leaders are meeting Oct. 20-23, 2024, to set the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) amid economic slowdown, property market downturn, and tech competition.
- Analysts expect an annual GDP growth target of 4.7–4.8%, with increased focus on tech self-reliance, green development, and national security.
- The plan may prioritize boosting domestic consumption, addressing inequality, and strengthening the social safety net.
- Standard Chartered Bank
- Ding Shuang, who is the head of Greater China economic research at Standard Chartered Bank, anticipates that the Chinese government will target an average annual economic growth rate of 4.7% to 4.8% between 2026 and 2030, based on recent policy disclosures.
- Yuekai Securities
- Luo Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, suggested implementing a dual-target system for nominal and real GDP growth. This approach aims to better reflect improvements in employment and income. He proposed a 5% average annual target for nominal GDP and 4.8% for real GDP.
- Nomura
- Nomura's chief China economist, Lu Ting, anticipates that China's upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan will prioritize self-reliance in key technologies such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology. Lu also highlights that the "old economy" will remain a crucial support for China's economy. He suggests the government will need to intensify policies to manage the declining property sector and may emphasize "inclusive growth" through social stability measures to reduce inequality.
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