Caixin Weekly | Internal Combustion Engines See Periodic Stabilization, Zero-Emission Technologies Are the Future (AI Translation)

财新周刊｜内燃机阶段性回稳 零排放技术才是未来

In a notable development in the automotive sector, internal combustion engine technology is increasingly being utilized to boost sales of new energy vehicles, specifically extended-range hybrids. Prominent automotive brands and emerging players like Avatr, Xpeng Motors, and Zeekr have shifted strategies to focus on hybrid product lines. Although pure electric vehicles reached 6.738 million units in domestic sales by November 2024, hybrids, particularly plug-in and extended-range vehicles, have gained traction due to their significant 85.2% growth [para. 1].

Hybrids offer a bridge in the transition from fuel-driven to electric vehicles by leveraging internal combustion engines to extend range. Following an aggressive push towards pure electric vehicles, the European and American markets are now reconsidering their strategies. Economic challenges and infrastructural inadequacies have prompted some automakers to advocate for more lenient carbon emission goals, with calls to delay implementation of stringent requirements [para. 3].

While Tesla remains a dominant force in the electric vehicle market, other automakers struggle with profitability solely from electric models. The Chinese market sees increased popularity in hybrids, signaling a potential pivot. An official from China’s Ministry of Industry underscored the need for dual focus on both electric and internal combustion technologies to foster harmonious development [para. 10].

Despite the momentum, the cost of producing electric vehicles in Europe remains prohibitive, and the market exhibits sluggish demand. Meanwhile, China has swiftly become the largest market for new energy vehicles, yet faces challenges of balancing the rapid market transition and sustaining internal combustion engine production [para. 5][para. 6][para. 10].

A significant shift is occurring in the European automotive market. For instance, hybrid electric vehicles outperformed traditional gasoline models in sales in November 2024. Hybrids, comprising small batteries that recharge through regenerative braking, offer a more practical alternative to purely electric models [para. 3][para. 13].

Akio Toyoda of Toyota posits that electric vehicles can only attain a 30% market share due to variable global energy infrastructures and conditions, a statement initially contentious but increasingly plausible. EU policies around banning fuel cars are seen as overly ambitious, prompting reconsideration [para. 13][para. 17].

Transitioning from traditional gasoline-powered vehicles presents significant challenges, notably for commercial vehicles, where new energy adoption remains limited. Solutions like hydrogen and ammonia internal combustion engines are being explored. Despite optimistic projections for zero-carburization technologies such as e-fuels, legislative and technical challenges persist [para. 19].

The emergence of zero-carbon fuels like hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol offers hope for reviving internal combustion engines with reduced environmental impact. Innovations in hydrogen internal combustion technology are progressing, though market readiness remains years away. Ammonia and methanol also hold promise for decarbonization, albeit with technological and logistical hurdles [para. 21][para. 24].

Automotive markets are pressured to adapt to stringent emissions standards such as Europe’s upcoming Euro 7 and China’s China 7 regulations, pushing up production costs and constraining internal combustion engine viability. With evolving fuel economy and carbon reduction metrics, traditional engine technology faces unprecedented constraints despite advancements in lower-carbon fuels [para. 30].

As economic pressures mount globally, industry insiders argue for a diversified approach, advocating for policies that support gradual transitions. As electric vehicles advance technologically and economically, their increased appeal is likely to shift market dynamics significantly [para. 33].

Amid these transitions, the role of internal combustion engines is not definitive. The industry's trajectory involves navigating complex regulatory landscapes while exploring new technology avenues, like e-fuels, which could redefine the future of engine design and production strategies [para. 36].