Cover Story: Nobel Winner Joel Mokyr on AI, Innovation and the Uneasy Marriage Between Tech and the State

Nobel laureate Joel Mokyr recently embarked on a five-day trip to China, immersing himself in both its rich history and its dynamic present. Despite the physical exhaustion from long walks in the National Museum of China, he felt the experience was invaluable. This visit came just ten days after Mokyr was announced as a joint winner of the 57th Nobel Prize for Economics, alongside Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt, for their research into innovation-driven economic growth and the role of “useful knowledge” in sustained prosperity[para. 1][para. 2][para. 3].

During his stay, Mokyr’s schedule was filled with lectures at Renmin and Peking Universities, meetings with academics, and cultural site visits like the Forbidden City[para. 4]. His energy and passion were evident, as seen when he left the stage during a Q&A session to better hear a student, surprising and delighting the audience[para. 5]. Students' enthusiasm matched his; many sought his autograph on the Chinese edition of his book, *A Culture of Growth: The Origins of the Modern Economy*, treating him like a celebrity[para. 6]. The visit, planned before his Nobel award, was organized by Professor Liu Shouying, who emphasized Mokyr’s insight that a culture embracing technology is crucial for economic progress[para. 7][para. 8].

In an interview with Caixin, Mokyr discussed the delicate task governments face in fostering innovation, highlighting that public-private partnerships offer the best model for balanced, sustainable progress in technology[para. 9]. He also reflected on how Europe’s historical political fragmentation fostered a competitive marketplace for ideas, a model that is still relevant today as global competition becomes more pronounced with advancements in communication and transportation. He expressed his hope for China to accelerate its innovation efforts[para. 10][para. 11].

Mokyr’s lectures underlined the significance of intellectual property rights, such as Britain’s 1624 Statute of Monopolies, in enabling private sector innovation and commercializing knowledge[para. 12]. In contrast, he explained that in historical China, much innovation was state-driven, with scholars often working as public officials whose research was not economically incentivized. He questioned whether innovation solely from the public sector could match the dynamism of the competitive, market-oriented private sector[para. 14].

He pointed to the Tang and Song dynasties' bursts of innovation, which stalled later due to political priorities, not a lack of talent[para. 17]. Mokyr argued that government-led innovation can be hampered by changing political goals, whereas market systems allow consumers to judge an innovation’s value. Examples like France’s Minitel and its successful investment in nuclear power illustrate the mixed results of governments “picking winners”[para. 21]. He advocated for a hybrid model combining state funding of basic research with market-driven application—a system prevalent in the West post-1945. Mokyr likened the state-market relationship to “a husband and wife in a bad marriage” — unable to separate, but fraught with tension [para. 23][para. 24].

Competition, both historically and globally, remains central to Mokyr’s thesis. He stressed that Europe’s innovative edge was sustained by intellectual and geographic pluralism, allowing thinkers to escape persecution and exchange ideas freely[para. 25][para. 26][para. 27]. He encouraged China to maintain its innovative momentum, especially amidst international tensions over technology transfer, and suggested that competition leads to mutual progress as long as it remains peaceful[para. 30][para. 31][para. 32].

On artificial intelligence, Mokyr offered an optimistic view, seeing it as a continuation of historical technological revolutions that ultimately yielded social benefits despite initial fears[para. 34]. He saw labor shortages, not unemployment, as a bigger challenge for aging societies and suggested robots could offer practical solutions[para. 36]. While AI could worsen inequality, robust social safety nets can offset this, and technological advances could further reduce working hours[para. 38].

Lastly, Mokyr reflected on the value of history, stressing that while it doesn’t provide direct lessons, it trains analytical thinking and broadens intellectual horizons — abilities crucial in times of rapid change. Education should focus less on specific skills and more on the capacity to learn and adapt[para. 43][para. 45][para. 46].