Commentary: Why 2025 May Mark a New Era for Chinese Assets
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Hong Kong stocks are rising while their U.S. counterparts slide, bucking the historical trend. Photo: AI generated
Hong Kong’s stock market has been the best performer globally since the start of the year.
Historically, during periods when Hong Kong stocks outperformed U.S. stocks for more than a year, there were virtually no instances of Hong Kong equities rising while their U.S. counterparts fell simultaneously. Most cases saw both markets rising together, accompanied by rising U.S. Treasury yields and a weakening U.S. dollar.
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- Hong Kong's stock market leads globally in performance, even as U.S. stocks decline and U.S. Treasury yields fall, suggesting a potential U.S. recession.
- Deglobalization is weakening the U.S. economy's influence, with regions focusing more on their fiscal and monetary policies, seen in Europe's stimulus measures and China's increasing fiscal deficit.
- Similar to Japan in the 1980s, China's industrial competitiveness and economic strategy might lead to a revaluation of Chinese assets by 2025.
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