Latest Cover Story | The U.S. Declares War on Global Trade (AI Translation)
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文|财新周刊 曾佳 发自美国首都华盛顿,王晶、罗子琳、李忆、路尘、胡暄、侯吴婷 发自北京
By Caixin Weekly’s Zeng Jia from Washington, D.C., Wang Jing, Luo Zilin, Li Yi, Lu Chen, Hu Xuan, Hou Wuting from Beijing
文|财新周刊 曾佳 发自美国首都华盛顿,王晶、罗子琳、李忆、路尘、胡暄、侯吴婷 发自北京
By Zeng Jia of Caixin Weekly, reporting from Washington, D.C., Wang Jing, Luo Zilin, Li Yi, Lu Chen, Hu Xuan, and Hou Wuting reporting from Beijing
美东时间4月2日下午,美国总统特朗普在白宫玫瑰园召开记者会,正式向全球祭出他自第二次当选以来预告许久的“对等关税”,同步向所有国家和地区开刀。
On the afternoon of April 2, Eastern Standard Time, U.S. President Donald Trump held a press conference in the White House Rose Garden. He officially announced the much-anticipated "reciprocal tariffs" since his second election, aiming at all countries and regions simultaneously.
在记者会开到一半时,特朗普举起美国商务部长卢特尼克递过来的,以黑色为底色、蓝黄两栏数字分别列出各国和地区对美关税,以及美国拟对其课税百分比的简报展示板一一详解美国对这些经济体课税的理由。这一画面很快传遍全球。在被视为全球化自贸体制被特朗普亲手拆毁的这一天,他手里抱着的、足有半个人高的长方形黑色展示板,亦有如自由贸易时代的墓碑。
Midway through the press conference, President Trump lifted a presentation board handed over by U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. The board, black with two columns in blue and yellow, detailed tariff rates imposed by various countries and regions on the U.S., as well as the percentage of tariffs the U.S. planned to impose in return. President Trump explained the reasoning behind taxing these economies. This scene quickly spread across the globe. On a day widely seen as Trump's dismantling of the globalized free trade system, the rectangular black presentation board, almost half his height, symbolized a tombstone of the free trade era.

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- Trump announced "reciprocal tariffs" targeting global partners, imposing a 34% tariff on China and 20-49% on others, focusing on countries with large trade deficits with the U.S.
- The move is expected to disrupt global trade, raise inflation, and slow economic growth, with significant negative reactions from international leaders and markets.
- Major economies, including Europe and Asia, vow to retaliate, marking a shift away from globalization; businesses warn of higher costs impacting U.S. consumers and industries.
[para. 1] On April 2nd, U.S. President Donald Trump announced new "reciprocal tariffs" targeting all trading partners, marking a significant shift in global trade relations. These tariffs, introduced during a press conference at the White House, aim to impose varying rates in response to perceived unfair practices by other nations. Trump highlighted this move as stepping away from the era of global free trade, symbolically dismantling the established systems that have thrived for decades.
[para. 2] The tariffs include a 34% rate on China and a range between 20% to 49% on other partners such as the EU, Japan, and India. A baseline 10% tariff would apply to all trading nations. This aggressive tariff policy could lead to increased inflation and economic slowdown, stoking investor concerns and market instability globally. The policy formulation involved a simplistic calculation based on U.S. trade deficits with respective countries, resulting in significant backlash and criticism.
[para. 3] The U.S. government defended the move, claiming disparities in tariff levels. Tariffs imposed were reportedly aligned with perceived tariff rates other countries charge the U.S., supported by a formula that includes trade volumes and elasticity estimates. Despite the government's defense, concerns about escalating trade wars and economic downturns have been prevalent.
[para. 4] Major trading nations like the European Union and individual countries such as Australia have expressed disappointment and threatened potential retaliation. Allies like Canada and Mexico have been exempted from these broad tariffs under the terms of existing trade agreements like the USMCA, though they face specific sectoral tariffs.
[para. 5] The tariffs have severe implications for global markets. Following the announcement, major U.S. stock indices saw significant fluctuations, reflecting investor concern. Economists predict that this policy turn could result in a weakening U.S. economy, raising recession risks and impacting long-term growth projections.
[para. 6] The policy is widely seen as a turning point, interrupting the global trade system's evolution towards liberalization. Experts argue this not only affects economic parameters but also pulses global political relationships, challenging the balance between multilateral trade ties and nationalistic policies.
[para. 7] As the U.S. embarks on this path, other nations are scrutinizing their strategies. The EU, for instance, is geared up for its response mechanism to counteract U.S. tariffs while urging dialogue to prevent escalation.
[para. 8] Analysts caution that such unilateral moves deepen hostilities and could undermine years of cooperative trade endeavors, weakening global supply chains and exacerbating inflationary pressures. They advocate for negotiations as a remedy to rescue the strained ties among the world's leading economies.
[para. 9] Amidst these abrupt changes, some nations might reconsider their trade strategies, possibly leaning towards regional alliances and cross-regional trade negotiations, further challenging U.S. hegemony in global economics.
[para. 10] U.S. domestic impacts aren't negligible, with anticipated increases in consumer prices and uncertainty regarding the nation's manufacturing sector. While the tariffs might aim to protect U.S. interests, the broader economic repercussions question their efficacy in achieving the long-term goals of economic growth and stability.
[para. 11] Comprehensive analyses suggest that while some countries may make concessions, broader intergovernmental alignment or retaliatory practices might arise as nations seek to protect their interests against the backdrop of U.S. protectionism.
[para. 12] Ultimately, economic experts stress the importance of adaptability and caution for both domestic and international stakeholders, advising immediate diplomatic efforts to mitigate potential adverse impacts from this sweeping tariff policy.
- As of mid-March, 2025:
- U.S. stocks essentially gave back all the gains since Trump's victory in November 2024.
- March 25, 2025:
- The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for March recorded a reading of 92.9, marking its fourth consecutive month of decline.
- The end of March, 2025:
- Goldman Sachs lowered its target price for the S&P 500 Index for the second time in a month.
- On the afternoon of April 2, 2025:
- U.S. President Donald Trump held a press conference in the White House Rose Garden to officially announce 'reciprocal tariffs'.
- April 3, 2025:
- Canada still faces auto tariffs effective at midnight on April 3, 2025, Eastern Time.
- April 3, 2025:
- Goldman Sachs' Chief China Economist Shan Hui revised down the U.S.'s fourth quarter GDP growth prediction for 2025 to 1%.
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