Update: China’s First-Quarter GDP Jumps 5.4% Ahead of Tariff Storm

China’s GDP grew 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, beating expectations, driven by an export rush ahead of higher U.S. tariffs and improved domestic consumption.

The figure, released Wednesday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) along with March activity data, compared with the average 5.1% pace in a Caixin survey of economists and matched the previous quarter’s print. Industrial output in March jumped 7.7% year-on-year, the fastest pace since June 2021 and topping analyst expectations, while retail sales, a gauge including consumer spending, grew 5.9% year-on-year, the biggest increase since December 2023.

China’s GDP Beats Expectations

“China’s economy got off to a steady and solid start in the first quarter as various macro policies continued to take effect,” Sheng Laiyun, a deputy commissioner of the NBS, said at a press briefing following the data release. But he cautioned that the foundation for a sustained economic recovery still needs to be strengthened. The external environment has become more complex and domestic demand lacks growth momentum, he said.