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China’s Auto Boom in Russia Cools as Tariffs, Taxes and Geopolitics Bite

Published: May. 15, 2025 5:14 a.m. GMT+8

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China’s car exports to Russia fell 44% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025.

After two years of breakneck growth, China’s car exports to Russia are reversing sharply, with first-quarter shipments in 2025 falling 44% year-on-year, reflecting growing pressure from Moscow’s tightening trade policies and rising geopolitical risks.

According to data compiled by Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of China’s Passenger Car Association, Chinese exported only 99,000 vehicles to Russia between January and March this year. That marks a dramatic shift from 2024, when Russia was China’s top auto export destination with 1.16 million units sold — up 27% year-on-year.

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China’s car exports to Russia dropped 44% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with only 99,000 units shipped, down from 1.16 million in 2024.
Russia slipped to China’s third largest auto export market; average export price fell nearly 25% to $16,000 in 2025 due to new Russian duties and higher "scrappage tax."
Chinese carmakers face increased regulatory barriers, local production pressures, and renewed competition from Japanese used cars.

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Who’s Who

Chery Automobile Co. Ltd.: Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. is a leading Chinese car exporter to Russia, holding a 20.4% market share in 2024. However, due to new Russian trade barriers and rising regulatory risks, Chery’s sales to Russia dropped nearly 20% in Q4 2024. Facing increasing volatility, Chery revealed in a February 2025 IPO filing that it plans to scale back its Russian operations to reduce exposure to geopolitical and regulatory uncertainties.

Great Wall Motor Co. Ltd.: Great Wall Motor Co. Ltd. was the second-largest Chinese car exporter to Russia in 2024, capturing a 14.2% market share. However, amid Russia's new trade barriers and higher import taxes, Chinese car shipments have dropped sharply. This suggests Great Wall Motor, along with other Chinese firms, is facing increasing challenges in the Russian market, with exports and sales likely under significant pressure.

Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd.: Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. was one of the leading Chinese car exporters to Russia, holding a 12.3% market share in 2024. This surge was part of a broader Chinese expansion after Western automakers exited Russia post-2022. However, tightening Russian trade policies and new taxes have contributed to a sharp decline in Chinese auto exports, impacting Geely's position and future prospects in the Russian market.

Chongqing Changan Automobile Co. Ltd.: Chongqing Changan Automobile Co. Ltd. was one of the leading Chinese car exporters to Russia, holding a 7% market share in 2024, according to consulting firm Rhodium Group. However, amid Russia’s new trade barriers and higher import taxes, Changan, like other Chinese automakers, has seen its exports to Russia sharply decline in early 2025, reflecting the growing challenges in that market.

Avtovaz: Avtovaz is a local Russian automaker. According to the article, its CEO, Maxim Sokolov, warned that the influx of Chinese cars poses a threat to Russia’s domestic auto and parts industries. Avtovaz is concerned about protecting local production as Chinese brands' market share in Russia has surged rapidly since the departure of Western carmakers.

Rhodium Group: According to the article, Rhodium Group is a consulting firm that provides analysis on China’s car export market. They provided data on Chinese car brands’ market shares in Russia and warned that regulatory hurdles could accelerate the decline in Chinese vehicle exports.

AI generated, for reference only