How to Allocate Assets in a Changing, Tumultuous World (AI Translation)

【周刊提前读】科技革命遭遇关税与地缘动荡 全球资产配置如何应对

Summary:

[para. 1] The article highlights growing concerns about market uncertainty, as expressed by Bill Gates, following the start of U.S. President Donald Trump's second term. Within his first hundred days, Trump has rolled out several significant policy changes: advocating for “reciprocal tariffs,” establishing preliminary trade agreements with the United Kingdom and China, and announcing a new tax cut plan. These policy announcements have introduced volatility in global capital markets, causing investors to closely monitor every development. Fund managers in major financial centers liken the current environment to Trump’s first term, marked by unpredictability and risk aversion.

[para. 2][para. 3] The issuance of the “China-U.S. Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement” on May 12, 2025, led to a temporary market rebound, easing fears and boosting investment sentiment. Notably, Mark Mobius of Mobius Emerging Markets Fund remains cautious, with 95% of his holdings in cash, underlining ongoing uncertainty regarding Trump’s actions. Goldman Sachs has responded to recent positive developments by reducing its forecast for a U.S. recession in 2025 from 45% to 35%, and raising its S&P 500 targets, showing increased, albeit cautious, optimism in the U.S. economy.

[para. 4][para. 5][para. 6] Market narratives are shifting from a tech-driven focus towards geopolitical risk and tariff negotiations, with experts like Ray Dalio advising investors to focus on underlying global forces rather than day-to-day events. The complex environment is further complicated by concepts such as the “Triffin Dilemma” and the “Thucydides Trap,” reflecting contradictions in the global role of the U.S. dollar and tensions between established and rising powers, namely the U.S. and China. Strategists recommend diversification across asset classes, geographies, and timeframes.

[para. 7][para. 8][para. 9][para. 10] This change in environment has also led to renewed interest in Chinese assets, with Morgan Stanley reporting significant inflows back into China’s equities, especially after the reciprocal tariffs were reduced. For a time in April, risk aversion drove gold prices past $3,500 per ounce, while U.S. equities suffered. However, post-agreement, the S&P 500 rebounded over 20% from its low, entering a technical bull market. The U.S. Dollar Index similarly recovered, though doubts about the sustainability of U.S. asset outperformance persist. Some fund managers have advised reducing U.S. exposure, questioning whether America can deliver on promises of reindustrialization under Trump.

[para. 11][para. 12][para. 13][para. 14] Despite occasional surges in “de-dollarization,” most investors and central banks view U.S. Treasurys as unrivaled for liquidity and safety, with the dollar comprising nearly 70% of central bank reserves. Still, concerns linger about potential U.S. dollar depreciation, with estimates suggesting another 10% fall is possible to reach its 20-year average. Recent relaxations in tariff tensions have prompted upward revisions for U.S. growth forecasts; the S&P 500 is seen potentially reaching 6,500 within the next year.

[para. 15][para. 16][para. 17] Amid volatility, gold and cash have served as safe havens, with gold up over 20% in early 2025 before retreating slightly following the easing of tensions. Asian central banks, especially in India and China, are increasing gold reserves. Leading investors like Warren Buffett and Mark Mobius keep large cash positions (Buffett’s successor inherits $347.7 billion cash reserve). The Swiss franc has appreciated significantly, benefiting from its haven status.

[para. 18][para. 19] Asset allocation is evolving, with Asian investors and firms diversifying globally. European defense stocks are highlighted, given increased EU defense spending, while Japanese equities and the yen are recommended due to structural reforms and Berkshire Hathaway’s increased stakes. Other emerging markets, particularly India, are attractive due to trade realignments and reduced geopolitical risk.

[para. 20][para. 21][para. 22] Following the U.S.-China preliminary trade deal, major investment banks have upgraded forecasts for Chinese growth and equities, noting low valuation ratios and easing risk premiums. The MSCI China Index and Hang Seng are projected to see gains. Global investors value Chinese assets for their low correlation with U.S. holdings, and Hong Kong dollar-denominated assets are favored for their liquidity and linkage to the U.S. dollar. The Hang Seng Index rose nearly 20% YTD. The Chinese yuan has also appreciated, supported by the trade agreement and easing bilateral tensions.

[All] In summary, the global investment landscape in 2025 is characterized by uncertainty driven by U.S. policy unpredictability, shifting market narratives toward geopolitical risk, and strategic recalibrations in global asset allocation. Diversification across regions, asset classes, and safe havens such as gold and certain currencies is increasingly emphasized amid heightened volatility and geopolitical shifts.