Lithium Glut Takes Prices to New Low Which Could Last Until 2030
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Mined rocks sit in a stockpile on a waste pad at the Bald Hill lithium mine site, co-owned by Tawana Resources Ltd. and Alliance Mineral Assets Ltd., outside of Widgiemooltha, Australia.
Lithium prices have dropped to their lowest levels in years, briefly dipping below 60,000 yuan ($8,350) per ton this week, as global oversupply swamps the market. Analysts now warn that the glut could persist until at least 2030.
According to data from the Shanghai Metals Market on Wednesday, battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged 60,500 yuan per ton, down 37.6% year-on-year. Spot prices touched a low of 59,900 yuan, and lithium has already lost nearly 20% of its value since the start of 2025.
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- Lithium prices fell to around 60,000 yuan/ton, down 37.6% year-on-year, due to a global oversupply.
- Only efficient brine-based mining remains profitable, with many higher-cost mines closing amid weak demand.
- Analysts, including Wood Mackenzie, forecast the lithium glut may persist until at least 2030.
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Who’s Who
- Wood Mackenzie
- Wood Mackenzie is a consultancy that issued a report in May stating that many companies simultaneously launched lithium projects, contributing to oversupply. They also forecast that the lithium oversupply might not ease until early 2030, with some projects already operating at a loss at current prices.
- Shanghai Metals Market
- Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) is a source of data on lithium prices. SMM reported that battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged 60,500 yuan per ton on Wednesday, with spot prices hitting 59,900 yuan. They also indicated that lithium carbonate supply is abundant, and demand is weak, with downstream companies buying only what's needed.
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What Happened When
- 2015：
- China’s EV subsidies triggered global demand, starting a surge in lithium prices from around 40,000 yuan per ton.
- 2018：
- Lithium prices peaked near 160,000 yuan per ton following years of rapid demand growth.
- By 2020：
- A flood of new supply, particularly from Australia, drove lithium prices back down to 40,000 yuan per ton.
- Late 2020：
- China launched its 'dual carbon' strategy, sparking a second rally in lithium prices alongside soaring EV demand.
- November 2022：
- Lithium prices hit a record 600,000 yuan per ton.
- By 2023：
- New mining and processing projects, initiated during the 2021-2022 price boom, began coming online.
- 2023-2027：
- Most new lithium production capacity, primarily in China, is scheduled to come online.
- Early 2024：
- Lithium prices slipped below 100,000 yuan per ton.
- By year-end 2024：
- Lithium prices fell further to around 80,000 yuan per ton, causing the closure of several lithium mines in Yichun, Jiangxi and Australia.
- May 2025：
- Wood Mackenzie report highlighted that many projects have come online simultaneously in response to prior price increases.
- This week (June 2025)：
- Lithium spot prices briefly dipped below 60,000 yuan per ton, their lowest in years.
- Wednesday (June 18, 2025)：
- Shanghai Metals Market reported battery-grade lithium carbonate averaging 60,500 yuan per ton, down 37.6% year-on-year.
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