Caixin Weekly | Great Wall Motors in Search of Its Next “Miracle Vehicle” (AI Translation)
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文｜财新周刊 余聪
By Yu Cong, Caixin Weekly
文｜财新周刊 余聪
By Yu Cong, Caixin Weekly
China's top three private automakers—BYD, Geely, and Great Wall Motor—are entering a new phase of fierce, close-quarters competition. At the same time, the entire industry is engaged in intense rivalry across all fronts, including products, pricing, branding, public opinion, and online traffic.
2025年5月，比亚迪（002594.SZ/01211.HK）继续保持国内汽车企业销量第一，单月批发销量超过38万辆，同比增长15.4%；吉利汽车（00175.HK）紧随其后，但展示出了更强劲的增长势头，当月批发销量同比增长46%、至23.5万辆；历史上曾领先于前两家对手的长城汽车（601633.SH/02333.HK）则延续近三四年来的竞争弱势，同期销量10.2万辆、同比增长11.78%，销量仅分别为比亚迪的27%、吉利的43%，排在行业榜单的第七位。
In May 2025, BYD Co. (002594.SZ/01211.HK) maintained its position as the leading domestic automaker in China, with monthly wholesale sales exceeding 380,000 units, up 15.4% year over year. Geely Automobile Holdings (00175.HK) followed closely, demonstrating even more robust growth; its wholesale sales surged 46% to 235,000 units for the month. Great Wall Motor Co. (601633.SH/02333.HK), which once outpaced these two rivals, continued its competitive decline of the past three to four years, recording sales of 102,000 units in the same period—a year-on-year increase of 11.78%. This was equivalent to only 27% of BYD’s sales and 43% of Geely’s, ranking Great Wall seventh in the industry leaderboard.
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- BYD leads China’s private automakers with May 2025 wholesale sales over 380,000 units, up 15.4% year-on-year; Geely follows with 235,000 units (+46%), while Great Wall trails with 102,000 units (+11.78%).
- Great Wall lags in both fuel and NEV markets, faces profitability pressure, missed low-cost NEV growth, and sees declining star model performance.
- Intense industry price war, high inventories, and regulatory intervention squeeze profits; automakers pledging shorter supplier payment cycles to stabilize the supply chain.
China's private automotive sector is currently dominated by three key players: BYD, Geely, and Great Wall Motor (GWM). In May 2025, BYD led the domestic market with wholesale sales exceeding 380,000 vehicles, a 15.4% year-on-year growth, followed by Geely with a stronger growth rate of 46% to 235,000 vehicles. In contrast, Great Wall Motor sold only 102,000 vehicles, just 27% and 43% of BYD’s and Geely’s volumes, respectively, and ranked seventh in the industry. GWM’s founder Wei Jianjun has been highly active on social media, attempting to elevate the company’s profile, believing that the brand's main issue is marketing rather than product quality. [para. 1][para. 2]
Historically, GWM emerged from Baoding, Hebei, and found initial success through pickup trucks. The breakthrough came in 2002 with its first SUV, the Safe, and the iconic Haval H6 in 2011, which consistently sold well. By 2016, GWM was considered China's most profitable automaker, while Geely and BYD were still relatively small and not yet serious competitors. However, a market shift occurred as the SUV market became fiercely competitive, and the industry began transitioning to new energy vehicles. BYD, with an early focus on NEVs, saw its sales surge, surpassing GWM and Geely in subsequent years, particularly after halting gasoline vehicle production in 2022 to commit fully to NEVs. BYD’s Song hybrid SUV overtook the Haval H6 as the top SUV. [para. 3][para. 4][para. 5]
GWM struggled to adapt. Its suite of sub-brands includes new energy-only WEY and Ora, but its overall NEV sales for 2024 reached only 321,000—equivalent to BYD’s monthly sales. Wei Jianjun has insisted on a multi-power strategy rather than overcommitting to full electrification, arguing the industry is broadly unprofitable in pure EVs. GWM also pushed its Tank sub-brand for off-road vehicles as a niche play, but competition is increasing from BYD’s Fang Cheng Bao and others. In the fast-growing sub-¥100,000 market segment led by Geely’s Xingyuan and BYD’s Seagull, GWM lacks a competitive offering. [para. 6][para. 7][para. 8]
In Q1 2025, GWM’s revenue was RMB 40 billion, down 6.63% year-on-year, and net profit plunged 45.6% to RMB 1.75 billion due to falling sales and investment in a direct-sales system. The company struggles to produce new blockbuster models, and recent attempts to revive the Haval brand focus on targeting compact off-road vehicles favored by older customers. [para. 9][para. 10]
Wei Jianjun’s recent media appearances have been marked by outspoken criticism of price wars among automakers and raised the unresolved issue of BYD’s use of low-pressure fuel tanks in plug-in models, alleging emissions concerns. These “war of words” episodes are set against the backdrop of a renewed market price war led by BYD’s steep discounts and followed by other automakers, squeezing profits across the sector. As a result, automotive industry profit margins dropped from 6.1% in 2021 to 4.3% in 2024, with only just above 4% in early 2025. GWM, prioritizing profitability over volume, avoided intensive price cuts but this strategy hindered volume growth. [para. 11][para. 12][para. 13]
GWM’s product strategy remains uncertain, and although it moved early in NEVs with joint ventures and the Ora brand, missteps such as the “chipgate” scandal and delayed Haval electrification cost it valuable market share. The company’s overseas push, particularly in Russia and with new plants in Brazil, has been relatively successful, with overseas sales contributing over a third of total volume in 2024. However, the Russian market is becoming more difficult due to new import regulations and taxes. Non-Russian export growth is now crucial, with expansion planned in Brazil, Australia, and beyond. [para. 14][para. 15][para. 16]
In summary, while BYD and Geely have capitalized on NEV and low-cost trends to drive strong sales and scale, GWM remains divided between maintaining profitability, finding international growth, and recalibrating its product portfolio—challenges compounded by leadership transitions and evolving industry competition. [para. 17][para. 18][para. 19]
- BYD
- In May 2025, BYD led Chinese automakers in sales, with over 380,000 vehicles sold, marking a 15.4% increase. BYD also commands the price war in China, leveraging its leadership in new energy vehicles. BYD's "Song" plug-in hybrid SUV became the top-selling SUV in 2022.
- Geely Automobile
- Geely Automobile is a major Chinese automaker that has shown strong growth, with wholesale sales up 46% to 235,000 units in May 2025. It closely follows BYD in sales and has expanded its presence through technological advancements, production increases, and brand upgrades. Geely's acquisition of Volvo Cars in 2010 helped elevate its brand image.
- Great Wall Motors
- Great Wall Motors, a major private Chinese automaker, is facing strong competition from BYD and Geely. Once a leader, its sales have declined, with its 2025 monthly sales at just 27% of BYD's. Chairman Wei Jianjun is actively promoting the brand, despite past criticisms of its marketing. The company aims for breakthroughs in niche markets like off-road SUVs, while its New Energy Vehicle (NEV) strategy has wavered. Great Wall Motors is also expanding in overseas markets to offset domestic challenges.
- Leapmotor
- The article does not contain information about Leapmotor (零跑汽车).
- Changan Automobile
- Changan Automobile is not mentioned in the provided article content. The article focuses on other Chinese private car manufacturers such as BYD, Geely, and Great Wall Motors.
- SAIC-GM
- SAIC-GM is not mentioned in the provided article content. The article primarily focuses on Chinese private automakers like BYD, Geely, and Great Wall Motor, and their competitive landscape within the Chinese and international markets.
- SAIC-GM-Wuling
- SAIC-GM-Wuling (SGMW) is a significant player in the Chinese automotive market. The article highlights that the Wuling Hongguang MINI EV is one of the top three best-selling car models in China, with all three priced under 100,000 yuan. SGMW's success in this low-price segment showcases the current market trend towards affordable vehicles.
- Chery Automobile
- The provided article content focuses on Great Wall Motors and its competition with BYD and Geely, without mentioning Chery Automobile. Therefore, based solely on the given text, no information can be provided about Chery Automobile.
- Dongfeng Motor Corporation
- Dongfeng Motor Corporation is a Chinese state-owned automobile manufacturer mentioned in the context of Chinese carmakers committing to shortening payment terms for suppliers. This move is presented as a response to governmental calls for fair practices in the automotive industry and to ensure supply chain stability. Dongfeng's commitment specifically aligns with the "Regulations on Ensuring Payments to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises."
- Tesla
- The article doesn't contain information about Tesla. The content focuses on Chinese car manufacturers like BYD, Geely, and Great Wall Motors.
- NIO
- The provided article does not contain information about NIO (蔚来汽车). It primarily focuses on three Chinese private car manufacturers: BYD, Geely, and Great Wall Motors, discussing their market competition, sales performance, strategies, and challenges.
- Xpeng
- The article does not contain information about Xpeng.
- FAW Group
- FAW Group is mentioned as one of the major Chinese automotive companies that announced commitments to shorten supplier payment terms to under 60 days. This move, along with similar announcements from other leading automakers like BYD and Geely, comes in response to calls from the Chinese government to address "disorderly price wars" and improve the health of the automotive supply chain.
- GAC Group
- GAC Group (Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd.) is a state-owned Chinese automobile manufacturer headquartered in Guangzhou. The article mentions GAC Group among other major Chinese car manufacturers, all of whom have pledged to shorten payment terms to suppliers to no more than 60 days. This action aligns with government efforts to counter intense market competition and support the automotive supply chain.
- Seres
- The article does not contain information about Seres. It focuses on Chinese private car manufacturers like BYD, Geely, and Great Wall Motors.
- BAIC Group
- The article does not contain information about BAIC Group. It focuses on Chinese private car manufacturers like BYD, Geely, and Great Wall Motor, detailing their competitive strategies, market performance, and challenges within the automotive industry.
- SAIC Motor
- SAIC Motor is not mentioned in the provided article content. Therefore, no information can be given regarding SAIC Motor based on the given text.
- Zhejiang Geely Holding Group
- Zhejiang Geely Holding Group, also known as Geely, is one of China's top private car manufacturers, alongside BYD and Great Wall Motor. In May 2025, Geely Automobile's wholesale sales increased by 46% to 235,000 units, demonstrating strong growth. Geely aims to shorten supplier payment terms to no more than 60 days.
- Volvo Cars
- In 2010, the parent company of Geely Automobile, Zhejiang Geely Holding Group, acquired Volvo Cars, a move that helped Geely shed its early image as a low-end brand. This acquisition contributed to Geely becoming the top-selling domestic car brand in 2017 and maintaining a leading position thereafter.
- Guangdong Fudi Bodywork Factory
- Guangdong Fudi Bodywork Factory gained popularity for its imitation Isuzu vehicle bodies. In the early 2000s, it supplied bodies to various car manufacturers, including Great Wall Motor. This collaboration highlights a period when many Chinese automakers relied on purchasing body shells to assemble vehicles.
- 1984：
- Baoding Great Wall Industrial Company, predecessor of Great Wall Motor, was established as a local state-owned enterprise.
- 1990：
- Wei Jianjun was appointed as general manager of Great Wall.
- 1991：
- Wang Fengying joined Great Wall.
- 1998：
- Great Wall was restructured into Great Wall Motor Company Limited with Wei Jianjun as principal controller.
- Around 2000：
- Great Wall faced a shrinking small pickup market and shifted toward larger Isuzu-style pickups; Sailor pickup subsequently launched.
- 2001：
- Great Wall launched the Sailor pickup (based on Isuzu chassis).
- 2002：
- Great Wall developed its first SUV, the Safe, based on a pickup chassis.
- 2003：
- Wang Fengying began serving as president, managing sales and international markets.
- 2010：
- Zhejiang Geely Holding Group made headlines with its acquisition of Volvo Cars.
- 2011：
- Great Wall's first-generation Haval H6 SUV launched and became a sales phenomenon.
- 2016：
- Great Wall's annual vehicle sales surpassed one million, with nearly 600,000 Haval H6 units sold; net profit surpassed 10 billion yuan.
- 2017：
- SUV market in China became highly competitive, stalling Haval H6's growth; Geely became top-selling domestic automaker.
- 2018：
- Great Wall formed a JV with BMW to produce the electric MINI and launched NEV brand ORA.
- 2021：
- SUV brand Tank was established by Great Wall. BYD's vehicle sales exceeded 700,000, including 600,000 NEVs. Great Wall and Geely's sales: 1.28m and 1.32m, but only about 100,000 NEVs each. ORA sales for Great Wall surpassed 130,000. Great Wall's overseas sales surpassed 100,000 units. Tank's sales: 84,000 units.
- End of 2021：
- ORA Good Cat scandal ('chipgate'): model discovered not to match advertised chip specs; Great Wall apologized and compensated affected customers.
- 2022：
- BYD discontinued traditional fuel vehicles, launched full drive into NEVs. BYD annual sales surpassed 1.8m; Geely over 1.43m; Great Wall sales declined to 1.067m (down 16%). BYD Song plug-in hybrid SUV outsold Haval H6. Great Wall's ORA Black Cat and White Cat EVs were discontinued due to supply issues following the pandemic. Wang Fengying departed from Great Wall Motor. In Russia, Great Wall sales were 35,800 units. Tank sales: 123,000 units.
- Beginning of 2023：
- Domestic auto price war in China kicked off.
- Early 2023：
- Wang Fengying was appointed President of XPeng Motors.
- May 2023：
- Great Wall Motor publicly accused BYD of plug-in hybrid models allegedly failing emissions standards ('fuel tank gate').
- End of 2023：
- BYD launched new off-road SUV brand Fangcheng Bao, directly targeting Great Wall’s Tank.
- 2024：
- Wei Jianjun began high-profile social media activity. Great Wall Tank sales: 231,000 units. Great Wall NEV sales: 321,000 units. BYD annual sales: 4 million; Geely: 2.17m; Great Wall: ~1.2m. Russia implemented tighter auto import rules beginning in 2024; from April 1, 2024, cars entering via Central Asia owed added taxes. Great Wall invested $100 million in Yuanrong Qixing; expanded use of Yuanrong Qixing and Momenta tech. Great Wall launched direct-sales brand “Great Wall Zhixuan” in April. Payment cycles to suppliers for automakers generally rose to 120-200 days. BYD gross margin improved 7 straight quarters from Q2 2023 to Q1 2025.
- September 2024：
- XPeng launched MONA M03, first major campaign after Wang Fengying’s appointment.
- October 2024：
- Geely launched affordably priced compact EV Xingyuan.
- End of October 2024：
- Russia raised the recycling tax on imported cars effective October 1, 2024, with an increase of 70%-85%.
- January 2025：
- Geely Xingyuan sales surpassed BYD Seagull, taking top spot in small car sales.
- First quarter of 2025：
- Great Wall's NEV exports: 90,000, down 2% YoY; to Russia: 36,000 (down ~20% YoY). Overall Chinese vehicle exports to Russia: 123,000 units (down 39%). Great Wall per-vehicle net profit: 6,800 yuan; total profit: 1.75bn yuan (down 45.6%).
- As of first quarter 2025：
- XPeng's gross margin reached 15.6% after seven consecutive quarters of improvement.
- By end of April 2025：
- Passenger car inventories in China reached 3.5 million units.
- May 12, 2025：
- Wei Jianjun invited the Brazilian President to the opening of Great Wall's new plant.
- May 20, 2025：
- Cui Dongshu reported auto industry inventory continued to rise, reaching the highest in recent years.
- May 23, 2025：
- BYD introduced 'limited-time subsidy prices' for 22 models, discounts exceeding 50,000 yuan.
- May 26, 2025：
- Geely launched 'limited-time subsidy prices' for Galaxy NEV models.
- May 27, 2025：
- National Bureau of Statistics data: auto sector profit margin in first four months just above 4%. Zhao Yongpo (Haval GM) stated at Haval Menglong event that Haval will not be fully NEV-focused, revising prior goals.
- End of May 2025：
- Haval launched the Dragon, a gasoline-powered compact off-road vehicle.
- May 31, 2025：
- CAAM and MIIT issued statements condemning the 'disorderly price war' in China’s auto industry.
- First five months of 2025：
- Chinese passenger car retail sales: 8.811 million units, up 9.1% YoY. Great Wall sales: 459,000 (down 0.54%).
- June 10, 2025 (evening)：
- Automakers including FAW, Dongfeng, GAC, Seres, Geely, BYD, and Great Wall announced reduction of supplier payment periods to no more than 60 days; BAIC and SAIC cancelled use of commercial acceptance bills.
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