IMF Lifts China, Global 2025 Growth Forecasts
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lifted its global growth forecast for 2025, including a notable upward revision for China, citing front-loaded exports ahead of tariffs and easing trade tensions with the U.S.
The global economy is expected to expand by 3% this year, according to a Tuesday update to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) report. That was up from the 2.8% projection in its April publication.
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- The IMF raised its global 2025 growth forecast to 3%, up from April’s 2.8%, citing improved exports, easing U.S.-China trade tensions, and fiscal expansion.
- China’s 2025 GDP forecast was revised up to 4.8% (from 4%), with first quarter growth at 5.4% and annualized rate at 6%, driven by exports and domestic consumption.
- The U.S.-China tariff truce was extended by 90 days; China’s headline inflation is expected near zero, with core inflation revised to 0.5%.
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Who’s Who
- Morgan Stanley
- Morgan Stanley economists hold a less optimistic view on China's economic outlook compared to the IMF. While the IMF upgraded its forecast, Morgan Stanley economists anticipate slower growth in China during the second half of 2025. They attribute this to persistent domestic challenges like tepid demand and deflationary pressure, alongside waning exports due to ongoing global trade tensions.
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What Happened When
- First quarter of 2025：
- China's economy grows 5.4% year on year; real GDP growth estimated at annualized rate of 6%.
- First half of 2025：
- China's economy grows 5.3% year on year, showing stronger-than-expected activity.
- Early April 2025：
- U.S. President Donald Trump announces 'reciprocal tariffs', heightening the China-U.S. tariff war.
- April 2025：
- IMF publishes World Economic Outlook (WEO) report projecting global growth for 2025 at 2.8% and China's growth at 4%.
- May 2025：
- U.S. and China announce a tariff truce, agreeing to suspend some additional tariffs for 90 days.
- Early week of July 28, 2025：
- U.S. and China agree to extend their tariff truce by another 90 days following talks in Sweden.
- Tuesday, July 29, 2025：
- IMF issues an update to its World Economic Outlook, revising its 2025 global growth forecast to 3% and China's to 4.8%.
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