Commentary: China’s Exports Find New Drivers
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China’s exports grew 7.2% year-over-year in July in U.S. dollar terms, beating expectations of 5.8%, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. Imports rose 4.1% year-over-year, also surpassing a forecast of 0.3%.
The trend of “front-loading” exports to the U.S. has eased, while improved exports to emerging markets may be due to expectations related to transshipment and a recovery in their domestic demand.
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- China’s exports rose 7.2% year-over-year in July 2024, beating forecasts, while imports increased 4.1%.
- Exports to the U.S. dropped by 21.6%, but exports to emerging markets—Africa (+42.5%), Latin America (+7.8%), South Korea (+4.7%)—increased notably.
- “Front-loading” of exports to the U.S. diminished; Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs 2.0, effective August 7, 2024, adds uncertainty to future export performance.
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Who’s Who
- Shenwan Hongyuan Securities
- Shenwan Hongyuan Securities' chief economist, Zhao Wei, provides analysis on China's July export growth. He notes a decline in shipments to developed countries, especially the US, indicating a wane in "front-loading" exports. Conversely, exports to emerging markets, including Africa, saw significant increases, potentially driven by accelerated industrialization in these regions and demand for Chinese production materials.
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What Happened When
- mid-May 2025：
- Conclusion of the Geneva negotiations, which led to a surge in American demand and front-loading of Chinese exports to the U.S.
- Since June 2025：
- U.S. pre-bookings for containers from China have remained negative on a year-over-year basis, signaling a decline in front-loading exports.
- early July 2025：
- Foreign trade cargo throughput at Chinese ports continued to rise.
- July 2, 2025：
- President Donald Trump announced on social media that he reached a trade agreement with Vietnam and specified a 40% tariff on 'transshipment trade' goods to take effect in August 2025.
- July 2025：
- China's exports grew 7.2% year-over-year, imports rose 4.1% year-over-year. Exports to the U.S. fell 5.6 percentage points to -21.6%. Exports to the European Union rose 1.6 percentage points to 9.3%. Exports to South Korea (+11.2 percentage points to 4.7%), Latin America (+9.8 percentage points to 7.8%), and Africa (+7.5 percentage points to 42.5%) increased. The global manufacturing PMI three-month moving average was 49.9. Export growth for steel products, unwrought aluminum, and integrated circuits increased by 13.3, 12.2, and 4.9 percentage points respectively.
- July 31, 2025：
- Donald Trump signed the Reciprocal Tariffs 2.0 plan for multiple countries.
- August 7, 2025：
- Reciprocal Tariffs 2.0 plan officially took effect.
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