Commentary: The U.S. Shipping Peak Season That Wasn’t

This year, the existence and character of a “peak season” for U.S. shipping routes has been unclear to many, with public perception suggesting a lack of a traditional busy period. However, a detailed analysis of the data for July revealed surprising trends that challenge these perceptions[para. 1][para. 2][para. 3]. Initially, early looks at July’s shipping data did not hint at anything remarkable, but later, fully matured data exposed a significant shift in shipping patterns that defies common assumptions[para. 4].

U.S. shipping volume in 2024 has been heavily influenced by changes in tariff policies imposed by the Trump administration, which effectively rendered the impact of traditional seasonal cycles negligible. In the first quarter, import volumes surged as importers rushed to move goods ahead of new reciprocal tariffs taking effect in April. On April 2, the U.S. announced tariffs on all countries, followed by a 90-day suspension for all except China, with just a 10% basic reciprocal tariff levied during this period. Consequently, May saw a 9.3% month-over-month decline in seaborne imports, with imports from China dropping 21%[para. 5].

On May 12, the U.S. announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on China, briefly causing a small spike in shipments from China in late May. This led to stabilization in import volumes for June—declines in early June were offset by gains later in the month, amounting to a slight 1.8% month-over-month increase in volume from China[para. 6].

The main surprise came in July—while expectations of a peak season had been subdued by reality (including falling freight rates and the cancellation of extra sailings by carriers), the actual data told a different story. U.S. seaborne import volume grew by 400,000 TEUs (18% month-over-month), with 300,000 TEUs (an astounding 43.3% increase) coming from China. As a result, China’s share of U.S. imports rebounded from 31% in May/June to 38% in July. Other Asian countries like South Korea, India, Thailand, and Japan also saw marked increases, while Vietnam’s export volume to the U.S. remained stable, highlighting that only China could significantly move the needle in the short term for U.S. shipping[para. 7][para. 8].

Despite this substantial increase, neither freight rates nor general sentiment reflected a “peak season.” The reason is that most U.S. imports arrive from Asia, and because May and June volumes had been suppressed by tariffs, July’s jump merely brought figures back to normal rather than signaling a boom. Comparing July’s volumes with pre-tariff levels (March), the increase was only 16%. Furthermore, excess shipping capacity, especially concentrated on U.S. Southwest routes, suppressed freight rates even as import volume soared[para. 10].

As of early August, reciprocal tariffs officially took effect on all countries except China, which received another 90-day suspension. This has provided importers with short-term certainty, giving them a window to plan shipments and stabilize costs, although the real impact of tariffs will only become clear in the fourth quarter. The uncertainty ahead, amplified by shifting tariff regimes, could present the greatest challenges in the years to come, particularly by 2026[para. 11][para. 12][para. 13].