Analysis: The Trillion-Dollar Opportunity in China’s Aging Demographics
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According to estimates from the China Association of Social Welfare and Senior Service, the scale of China’s “silver economy” was approximately 7 trillion yuan ($965 billion), or 6% of GDP, as of 2023. This is expected to rise to 19 trillion yuan, or 10% of GDP, by 2035. Demographically, as of 2023, China had about 220 million people aged 65 and over, accounting for 15.6% of the population. The United Nations predicts this group could exceed 380 million people, or 30.9% of the population, by 2050. As medical conditions and nutritional levels improve, the quality of life for the elderly is also expected to rise, further expanding the silver economy.
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- China’s “silver economy” reached 7 trillion yuan (6% of GDP) in 2023 and is projected to hit 19 trillion yuan (10% of GDP) by 2035, with the population aged 65+ expected to exceed 380 million (30.9%) by 2050.
- Seniors in China have high net worth and growing consumption power due to property appreciation and smaller families, while government policies and subsidies aim to expand elderly care, healthcare, and age-friendly services.
- Challenges include healthcare infrastructure lagging developed countries and a rising elderly dependency ratio, prompting recommendations for long-term care insurance and smart elderly-care technologies.
China’s “silver economy”—economic activity related to its elderly population—has been growing rapidly. In 2023, it had a value of about 7 trillion yuan ($965 billion), or 6% of GDP, and is projected to rise to 19 trillion yuan (10% of GDP) by 2035 due to a swiftly aging population and expected improvements in elderly well-being.[para. 1] As of 2023, 220 million people (15.6% of the population) were over 65, with this group expected to surpass 380 million (30.9%) by 2050. Rising life expectancy, which the World Bank expects to approach 85 years by 2050 (up from 78 in 2021), will boost both the number and quality of life of China’s seniors, expanding their economic influence even further.[para. 1][para. 2]
The country’s dependency ratios are rising: in 2023, the total dependency ratio was 40% and the elderly dependency ratio 20%, both of which will keep increasing.[para. 3] Experience from aging societies such as Japan shows that as the elderly share rises, household consumption patterns shift: healthcare, housing, transportation, and communications see faster growth, while consumption of clothes, furniture, education, and entertainment drops.[para. 4] Between 1990 and 2005, Japan saw healthcare spending rise at 2.6% annually (beating nominal GDP growth of 1.2%), nutritional supplements at 10.1%, while apparel and furniture saw annual declines of 3.9% and 1.4%, respectively.[para. 4][para. 5][para. 6][para. 7][para. 8][para. 9] Similar trends are emerging in South Korea, where from 2015 to 2024, retail sales for food (7.2%) and pharmaceuticals (5.9%) outpaced overall retail growth (5.1%).[para. 10] Pharmaceuticals nearly doubled in value, reflecting an aging-driven surge in health demand.[para. 11][para. 12][para. 13][para. 14]
Within China, provinces with higher aging rates spend a larger share on healthcare. For instance, Liaoning’s elderly rate is 20% with healthcare spending at 7.4% (vs. Guangdong’s 9.6% and 4.8%, respectively).[para. 15]
The financial position of Chinese seniors is robust, thanks to long-term home ownership and rising property prices. Those born in the 1960s and 1970s benefited from home value appreciation—Beijing home prices grew over 10% annually from 2000 to 2020, and the population over 45 holds most real estate wealth.[para. 17][para. 18][para. 19][para. 20] Family size is shrinking (from 3.1 people per household in 2010 to 2.6 in 2020), reducing pressure from child-rearing and increasing economic independence among the elderly.[para. 21] In 2020, 55.7% of seniors lived with only a spouse or alone; reliance on family support dropped to 32.7%. Willingness to spend on quality lifestyles is rising, especially in lower-tier cities, with average household expenditures by those aged 46+ up 2% in 2024 overall, and as high as 6.2% in fourth-tier cities.[para. 22][para. 23]
China’s government is responding with robust policy support. The 2024 "No. 1 Document" on the silver economy and subsequent local actions are promoting age-friendly renovations, nursing robots, convenient living environments, and direct consumption subsidies.[para. 24][para. 25][para. 26][para. 27][para. 28][para. 29] Policy targets include improved health services, technological innovation, and fiscal incentives for senior living, especially in areas like healthcare capacity (where China currently lags far behind Japan and Germany in facilities and staff) and age-appropriate renovations (70% of urban homes lack elevators).[para. 31][para. 32]
Learning from Japan and others, China is considering unified long-term care insurance, preventive health services, and greater investment in smart elder care technologies like nursing robots, aiming to delay disability and reduce care burdens.[para. 38][para. 39][para. 40][para. 41] Ongoing reforms are expected to expand the economic toolkit available for managing an aging society and to further boost the silver economy’s role in China’s next phase of development.[para. 42]
- Huatai Securities
- Yi Huan, the Chief Macroeconomist at Huatai Securities, is mentioned in the article. No further information about Huatai Securities is provided.
- Caixin Media
- Caixin Media is the publisher of the original reporting or commentary from which the provided article content is an AI-generated English rendering. The article explicitly states that in case of discrepancies, the Chinese version published by Caixin Media should prevail. Caixin Media also clarifies that the views expressed in third-party articles do not necessarily reflect their positions.
- Bain & Company
- Bain & Company's "China Shopper Report 2025" observed a significant rise in household expenditures for those aged 46 and above. This increase is attributed to their accumulated wealth during China's economic boom and a shift towards prioritizing a high-quality lifestyle over traditional frugality.
- 1970：
- China’s average life expectancy was 57 years.
- 1990 to 2005：
- In Japan, household consumption expenditure for healthcare, housing, and transportation/communications grew faster than nominal GDP. Detailed annualized growth rates reported for various categories (e.g., healthcare: 2.6%, housing: 1.9%, nutritional supplements: 10.1%).
- Between 1990 and 2020：
- Cumulative transaction area of commercial housing in China exceeded 20 billion square meters. Urbanization rate rose from 33.4% in 1998 to nearly 66% in 2024.
- 1998：
- China underwent a housing reform, transitioning from a welfare-based to commercial housing distribution system.
- 2000：
- Japan established its long-term care insurance (LTCI) system.
- Between 2000 and 2020：
- Average price of commercial housing in China grew at an annualized rate of about 8%; in Beijing, home prices saw a compound growth rate of over 10%.
- 2006 to 2015：
- Japan implemented nationwide LTCI preventive care services agreement to provide home- and community-based preventive services.
- 2010：
- Number of persons per household in China was 3.1.
- 2012：
- Japan’s government began promoting robot and ICT use in long-term elderly care through Priority Fields in the Use of Robot Technology for Long‑term Care.
- 2012 to 2024：
- Since 2012, South Korean retail sales of books and stationery grew from 6.8 trillion won to 9.4 trillion won.
- 2015 to 2019：
- South Korean cosmetics retail sales grew annually.
- As of 2015：
- South Korea: households headed by middle-aged and elderly individuals (over 50) had high net assets.
- 2015 to 2024：
- In South Korea, total retail sales grew at an annualized rate of 5.1%; pharmaceutical sales grew from about 100 trillion won to about 180 trillion won; apparel retail sales grew from about 60 trillion won to less than 70 trillion won.
- 2019：
- People's Bank of China survey shows urban households aged 46 and above had relatively high assets and low debt.
- 2020：
- South Korean cosmetics retail sales saw a significant drop, thereafter recovering gradually to 2019 levels.
- 2020：
- Research by Hashimoto et al. (2024) and others cited improvements in care outcomes due to preventive services.
- 2020：
- Number of persons per household in China fell to 2.6. Seventh National Population Census shows 55.7% of elderly live only with a spouse or alone; family support reliance for elderly dropped from 40.7% in 2010 to 32.7%.
- By 2020：
- Japan's number of insured individuals under LTCI reached around 77.17 million (61% of total population).
- As of 2018：
- 36 of Japan’s 47 prefectures offered fiscal support for nursing robots in care facilities.
- 2021：
- China’s average life expectancy reached 78 years.
- 2022：
- Cross-sectional data shows correlation between provincial aging rates and healthcare expenditure in China (examples: Guangdong and Liaoning).
- As of 2023：
- The scale of China’s ‘silver economy’ was approximately 7 trillion yuan ($965 billion), or 6% of GDP. China had about 220 million people aged 65 and over, accounting for 15.6% of the population. China’s total dependency ratio rose to about 40%, and the elderly dependency ratio was about 20%.
- 2024：
- In sample cities, average expenditure of middle-aged and elderly households increased by 2.0%; third- and fourth-tier city growth rates noted. In September, Beijing released Action Plan for Elderly Care and Home Services; in December, Yunnan released Implementation Opinions on Silver Economy Framework. At the end of the year, Shanghai released policy measures for the silver economy.
- Early 2024：
- State Council General Office issued the Opinions on Developing the Silver Economy and Enhancing the Well-being of the Elderly (No. 1 Document).
- Since 2024：
- Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development began financial support for elevator installation and in-home age-friendly renovations.
- As of 2024：
- China’s number of hospitals per million people is only 40% of Japan’s and 70% of Germany’s. Beds per 10,000 is also comparatively lower. Doctor and nurse staffing levels remain much below levels in developed economies.
- 2024-2026：
- Changzhou Age-Friendly Renovation Action Plan in place, increasing subsidies and expanding renovation items.
- July 2025：
- Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Finance issued Notice on Implementing Elderly Care Service Consumption Subsidies for disabled elderly persons; project pilots began in Zhejiang, Shandong, and Chongqing.
- By 2025：
- Shanghai aims to incubate 50 'silver night-time economy' demonstration districts.
- By year-end 2025：
- Nationwide rollout of elderly care service consumption subsidy program for disabled seniors expected.
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