Commentary: Future Opportunities in an Era of Great Upheaval

The article discusses the current global upheaval, primarily framed through the significant changes taking place in the United States, and their profound impact on global competition and China’s development. The author, Zhou Qiren, a Chinese economist, contextualizes today’s transformation within the historical trajectory of Sino-U.S. relations. The improvement in relations since the late 1970s enabled China’s reform and opening-up policies, propelling its development by capitalizing on the opportunities from the post-Cold War world order established by American ascendancy[para. 1].

The article recounts the critical turn in U.S.-China ties, highlighting early agreements on student exchanges and trade in the late 1970s, and milestones such as China’s stock listing in the U.S. and accession to the WTO. These events occurred as the U.S. entered its postwar peak in the 1990s, following the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, after this peak, America’s trajectory began to decline, as the logic of historical peaks dictates a subsequent downturn[para. 2][para. 4].

Through personal experience, the author observes changes in the U.S., such as the decay of its industrial heartland known as the Rust Belt. While many blame this decline on global labor cost disparities and China’s rise, the author argues that the real problem is an inability to adapt to industrial upheaval, contrasting U.S. stagnation with successful adaptation seen in parts of China and countries like Switzerland[para. 3][para. 5].

The analysis attributes America’s stagnation and domestic problems to the overextension of resources to maintain global hegemony, neglecting internal revitalization. The visible social and economic disorders, including decaying cities and natural disaster mismanagement, reflect a declining governance capacity for a country that once boasted half the world’s economic output at the end of World War II. Today, the U.S. share is only 26%, facing $1.2 trillion annual trade deficit and an enormous $36 trillion fiscal deficit, making its global role unsustainable[para. 6][para. 7][para. 8][para. 9][para. 10][para. 11].

“America First,” the long-standing political refrain renewed in the Trump era and following his 2024 election victory, echoes the traditional U.S. “isolationism” dating back to George Washington. The domestic imperative to solve internal problems first is gaining traction, as many Americans and global observers question the feasibility and desirability of continued U.S. hegemony amid mounting fatigue and international resistance[para. 11][para. 12][election_info].

The article references theories like the “Thucydides Trap,” where a dominant power confronted by a rising challenger often results in war, and the analysis by scholars like Graham Allison and John Mearsheimer. However, the outcome is not predetermined, and much hinges on whether great powers can avoid catastrophic conflict and adapt to the new multipolar reality. The old world order is giving way, but what the new one will look like remains unclear[para. 13][para. 14][para. 15][para. 16][para. 17][para. 18][para. 19].

Ultimately, Zhou suggests that major global changes do not end the possibility of prosperity. The outcomes depend less on abstractions and more on the adaptive responses of ordinary people to changing circumstances, as demonstrated throughout history. Thus, understanding this great upheaval requires attention to both macro geopolitics and the micro-level behaviors that drive new opportunities[para. 20][para. 21].