TECH

All Hail the Driverless Taxis as China Eyes a $183 Billion Market

Published: Aug. 29, 2025 3:03 a.m. GMT+8

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A vehicle used by Tesla to test robotaxis on the street in Austin, Texas, on June 22, 2025. Photo: Bloomberg

Robotaxis, once the stuff of science fiction, are now operating in Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Wuhan, and analysts say China’s fleet could swell to millions of vehicles within the next decade.

At a media briefing on Aug. 28, Gong Min, UBS’s auto analyst, predicted China’s robotaxi sector is approaching an inflection point, saying the nationwide fleet could reach 4 million by the late 2030s if adoption accelerates.

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Robotaxis now operate in four major Chinese cities; the nationwide fleet could reach 4 million by the late 2030s if adoption accelerates.
UBS estimates China's robotaxi market could reach $183 billion nationwide, with a break-even per-vehicle point possible by 2026, though overall sector profitability remains elusive.
Widespread adoption may cause significant job losses, and public debate over safety and congestion; carmakers like Tesla and XPeng are accelerating robotaxi developments.

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Who’s Who

Tesla Inc.: Tesla Inc., a prominent autonomous driving company, unveiled its Cybercab robotaxi in October 2024 with mass production slated for 2026. The company initiated a robotaxi service in Austin in June 2025, utilizing its existing vehicle models. This service already covers a larger operational area than Waymo, an industry pioneer.

XPeng Inc.: XPeng Inc. is a Chinese automaker that has announced plans for robotaxi products. This indicates their entry into the autonomous driving and fleet services sector, aligning with the trend of carmakers converging with tech-driven robotaxi operators.

UBS: UBS's auto analyst, Gong Min, predicts China's robotaxi sector will reach an inflection point, with the nationwide fleet potentially growing to 4 million by the late 2030s. UBS estimates the robotaxi market in China's top-tier cities could be worth $8 billion, with a nationwide rollout pushing it to $183 billion. They also noted the price of a robotaxi in China can now be below 300,000 yuan ($42,000).

Waymo: Waymo, also known as 谷歌自动驾驶汽车公司, is mentioned as an industry pioneer in the robotaxi sector. The article notes that Tesla's robotaxi service, launched in Austin in June 2025, covers a larger area than Waymo, indicating Waymo's established presence and early development in the field. No other specific details about Waymo are provided in the article.

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What Happened When

October 2024：: Tesla Inc. unveiled its Cybercab robotaxi.

2025：: The actual share of electric vehicles (EVs) in new car sales in China is likely to surpass 50%.

As of 2025：: China has about 2 million traditional taxis and more than 5 million ride-hailing cars.

As of 2025：: The price of a robotaxi in China can be below 300,000 yuan ($42,000).

June 2025：: Tesla began operating a robotaxi service in Austin using existing models.

Aug. 28, 2025：: Gong Min, UBS's auto analyst, predicted China's robotaxi sector is approaching an inflection point and projected future fleet sizes.

AI generated, for reference only