Commentary: Why China’s Export Remains Strong Despite the Trade War
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This year, the world has witnessed the most extensive and highest-tariff trade war since the 1930s. Even so, China’s exports have remained resilient.
The market has focused excessively on the short-term logic of front-loading exports, while relatively ignoring the unique product and country characteristics of China’s exports, which narrate the future path of its manufacturing industry: accelerating overseas expansion, upgrading products, and leveraging a new round of technological revolution.
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What Happened When
- 2018：
- The first major trade war of this era began, initiating 'Going Global 1.0' for Chinese companies, with increased moves to Southeast Asia and North America.
- 2024：
- China’s share of global exports was 15%, up 0.6 percentage points from 2023.
- 2024：
- Integrated circuit exports from China mainland, Taiwan, South Korea, and Vietnam almost all maintained double-digit growth.
- End of 2024：
- Market concerns grew about the trend of China’s exports.
- Early April 2025：
- Pessimism about China’s exports peaked after Trump proposed a 'reciprocal tariff' policy.
- April 2025：
- After tariffs, U.S. import year-over-year growth dropped significantly.
- April 2025：
- Starting this month, EU and Japanese export year-over-year growth rates began to decline.
- April 2025：
- Trump temporarily exempted some electronic products from tariffs, leading to renewed growth in integrated circuit exports.
- May-June 2025：
- EU month-over-month import growth was only -5.2%.
- June 2025：
- U.S. import year-over-year growth turned negative to -1.4%, lowest month-over-month rate for same period since 2016.
- First half of 2025：
- Strong year-over-year export growth among ASEAN countries: Vietnam (15.4%), Philippines (13.2%), Thailand (15.0%), Indonesia (8.3%), Malaysia (3.6%).
- First half of 2025：
- Main contributors to China's export growth: cross-border e-commerce, special-purpose machinery, consumer electronics, electrical equipment, general-purpose machinery, communication equipment.
- First half of 2025：
- China’s export share was approximately 14.3%, almost flat compared with the same period last year. China’s share of some mid-to high-end manufacturing exports increased significantly.
- First half of 2025：
- Expansion of global AI demand significantly increased China’s electronics exports.
- January-July 2025：
- Emerging markets (Brazil, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia) showed strong import year-over-year growth rates: 8.3%, 18.5%, and 11.1% respectively.
- January-July 2025：
- Japan's cumulative year-over-year import growth was -0.1%.
- January-July 2025：
- China’s exports grew by 6.1% year-over-year, outperforming 2024’s 5.8%.
- January-July 2025：
- China’s export growth to Africa, Southeast Asia, EU, and Latin America reached 24.4%, 13.6%, 7.3%, and 7.4% respectively.
AI generated, for reference only
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