Commentary: The Paradox of China’s Golden Week

This year’s National Day holiday in China, coinciding with the Mid-Autumn Festival, extended over eight days from October 1-8, one day longer than last year. By taking three additional workdays off, individuals could enjoy a 12-day vacation, leading to a travel boom. Preliminary data from the first seven days indicate that while the volume of travel hit record highs, spending patterns were more nuanced. [para. 1]

Cross-regional passenger flow during the nine-day period, including the day before the official holiday, increased by 6.5% year-over-year, surpassing last year’s Golden Week pace but slightly trailing this year’s May Day holiday. Trips by rail, road, water, and air grew by 2.6%, 6.5%, 4.2%, and 3.4% respectively. Notably, self-driving trips — up by 7.1% — dominated, representing 79.8% of total passenger travel. [para. 2]

People’s willingness to travel also rose, highlighted by the Baidu Migration Index, which jumped 22.2% on the holiday’s first day. Over 30% of workers reportedly extended their vacations, increasing overall travel distances. This was further reflected by Qunar’s car rental data, showing SUV and multi-purpose vehicle orders suitable for group travel grew by 1.6 times. [para. 3]

Air travel data followed suit: the number of domestic flights during the holiday increased by 3.6% and 3.8% over the same periods in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Bookings to remote, scenic cities such as Shiyan, Turpan, and Alxa Left Banner more than doubled, according to Qunar. [para. 4]

International and cross-border travel experienced even faster growth than domestic tourism. Estimates from the National Immigration Administration suggest daily border crossings exceeded 2 million — a 6.8% increase from last year. Umetrip found that international flight bookings rose by approximately 13%. Outbound travel surged, with visa service bookings up nearly 30%. Top destinations included Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, but visa-free arrangements led to dramatic increases in travel to Uzbekistan (up 3.3x) and Kazakhstan (up 2.3x). Inbound tourism was also stronger, as visa-free policies attracted more foreign travelers, with Qunar reporting a 40% year-over-year increase in foreign travelers flying within China on October 1. [para. 5]

Travel trends showed a shift toward personalization, with rising interest in niche destinations and culturally rich experiences. County-level tourism pre-bookings increased 51% year-over-year on the holiday’s first day. Popular media, such as the video game “Black Myth: Wukong” and drama “The Boundary,” inspired spikes in traffic to certain regions and scenic searches. [para. 6]

Tourists moved from traditional checklist sightseeing to immersive vacations. The appeal of traveling for events remained strong: according to Fliggy, searches for hotels near performance venues grew by 1.5 times; music festivals and sporting events (like the China Open) drove even greater spikes in local hotel bookings. [para. 7]

Commemorative and festival-themed tourism thrived as well; the Museum of Evidence of War Crimes by Japanese Army Unit 731 saw a 17.7% increase in visitors, while “moon-viewing economy” activities pushed hotel searches for suitable sites up by 117%. [para. 8]

Despite the influx of tourists, per capita spending dropped. In Sichuan, key scenic areas saw a 7.4% increase in visitors but only a 3.5% rise in ticket revenue, signaling a 3.8% decline in average spending. In Jingzhou, a 102.1% jump in visitors led to just a 47.1% increase in ticket income, a 27.2% fall in per-person expenditure. [para. 9]

Overall consumption remained soft: retail and food service sales nationwide increased just 3.3% year-over-year, slower than the 6.3% growth from May Day but outperforming summer trends. Local governments issued over 480 million yuan in consumption vouchers, but some incentives, such as trade-in subsidies for automobiles and appliances, were reduced. [para. 10]

Meanwhile, box office revenues struggled, falling to 1.54 billion yuan (down 24% and 15% compared to 2023 and 2024 periods, respectively), with average ticket prices also lower at 37 yuan. [para. 11]

[para. 12][para. 13] The author’s views do not reflect the position of Caixin; Yi Huan is the chief macroeconomist at Huatai Securities.