BUSINESS

In Depth: Congo’s Cobalt Controls Deepen Uncertainty for Chinese Miner

By Luo Guoping, Lu Yutong and Wang Xintong

Published: Oct. 14, 2025 5:12 p.m. GMT+8

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It has been a rough year for the world’s largest cobalt producer.

Shanghai-listed CMOC Group Ltd.’s sales fell over 17% year-on-year in the second quarter, according to the miner’s earnings results. By the end of June, its inventory of the metal, a key raw material for the lithium-ion batteries that power smartphones and electric vehicles (EVs), had increased 35% to more than 57,000 tons.

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DRC’s 2024 cobalt export ban decreased miner revenue but raised cobalt prices by up to 170%, while failing to meet government fiscal goals.
The ban was replaced in October 2025 by a quota system, capping annual exports at 96,600 tons (44% of DRC’s 2024 output), creating supply uncertainty and concerns about implementation.
The EV battery sector was mostly unaffected due to a shift to cobalt-free lithium iron phosphate batteries, now dominating China’s market.

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Who’s Who

CMOC Group Ltd.: CMOC Group Ltd., also known as Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd., is the world's largest cobalt producer. The company faced challenges due to the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) cobalt export ban, impacting its sales and inventory. Following the ban's reversal, CMOC's share price rose significantly. The new quota system in the DRC is expected to create further uncertainty for CMOC and other cobalt miners.

Glencore PLC: Glencore PLC, a major producer of cobalt in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), issued a force majeure declaration after the DRC unexpectedly banned all cobalt exports. This declaration stated that Glencore could no longer obtain cobalt from the DRC, following similar actions by other mining heavyweights. The ban caused significant disruption in the cobalt market.

Eurasian Resources Group: Eurasian Resources Group, also known as 欧亚资源集团, is identified as the third-largest producer of cobalt in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The company, alongside other mining heavyweights, issued a force majeure due to the DRC's unexpected ban on cobalt exports, indicating difficulties in obtaining cobalt from the region.

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What Happened When

Before February 2025：: Global cobalt stockpiles grew to more than 60,000 tons, covering more than three months of demand and driving prices to multiyear lows.

February 2025：: The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) unexpectedly announced a ban on all cobalt exports.

March 2025：: Christian P. Pinshi published an article stating the February 2025 ban caused substantial loss in fiscal revenues and pressures on mining operators.

After February 2025：: The China import price of 30% grade cobalt hydroxide increased nearly 170% from late February 2025, and 99.8% grade metallic cobalt price in China rose more than 80% off its February 2025 trough.

May 2025：: Last pre-ban shipments of cobalt from the DRC arrived in China.

June 2025：: By the end of June, CMOC's cobalt inventory had increased 35% to more than 57,000 tons.

June 30, 2025：: IXM, owned by CMOC, declared force majeure on cobalt supply contracts after being unable to obtain DRC cobalt.

After June 30, 2025：: Force majeure declarations also made by Glencore PLC and Eurasian Resources Group.

By the end of August 2025：: Ternary batteries containing cobalt accounted for 18.5% of all batteries installed in vehicles in China, down from 48.1% in 2021.