Trade War Monitor, Oct. 13: China Stands Firm on Trade War Fronts, Targeting Minerals and U.S. Tech

The US-China economic relationship experienced significant turbulence following Beijing’s new export controls on strategic minerals and President Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. These events caused major disruptions in global markets, erasing an estimated $2 trillion from US market value and leading to sharp declines in Hong Kong stocks, signaling one of the most severe escalations in recent years. However, in a familiar cycle of volatility, President Trump later softened his stance through a social media post, reassuring that bilateral relations "will be fine" and triggering a rebound in US market futures. This sequence underscores the uncertainty and rapid shifts in the trade conflict, where policy changes—often first announced via social media—immediately impact financial markets and investor sentiment.[para. 1][para. 2]

Beyond the tariff exchanges, the rivalry extended into other arenas. Beijing retaliated by imposing special port fees on US-linked ships and launching an antitrust investigation into the American semiconductor company Qualcomm, illustrating China's broader economic statecraft beyond tariffs. The trade conflict's breadth has continued to evolve, prompting analysts and observers to follow developments closely due to the significant global economic consequences.[para. 3][para. 21][para. 24]

Chinese traders have reacted to the renewed tariff threats with a sense of resignation; many merchants indicated in interviews that they are now accustomed to such announcements and expect negotiations to eventually ease tensions, drawing from past patterns in US-China relations. Meanwhile, China’s commerce ministry condemned US actions as “typical double standards,” defending their own rare earths export controls as a legitimate, security-driven, and limited practice, designed not as a ban but with export permits available for legitimate civilian use. The ministry emphasized having communicated with affected countries in advance and predicted limited global supply chain disruption.[para. 5][para. 6][para. 8][para. 9][para. 10]

China’s economic fundamentals have shown resilience amid these tensions. Data revealed that China’s exports rose by 8.3% year-on-year in September—outpacing an expected 5.9%—and imports surged 7.4%. This growth exceeded forecasts and narrowed the trade surplus to $90.5 billion, the smallest since February, suggesting that the Chinese economy remains robust even as global uncertainties persist.[para. 14][para. 15][para. 16][para. 17]

In financial markets, while the initial US tariff announcement erased $2 trillion in US market value and caused the S&P 500’s worst single-day loss since April, confidence was partly restored when Trump adopted a less adversarial tone. Dow futures gained 0.7%, and S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures rose by 0.9% and 1% respectively. In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell steeply—3.5% at midday, recovering to a 1.5% loss by close on widespread investor fears of a prolonged conflict.[para. 18][para. 19][para. 20][para. 22][para. 23]

China intensified its control over strategic industries, unveiling sweeping new export restrictions on rare earths and advanced lithium-ion batteries, which require government licenses for overseas sales effective in late 2025 and November 2024, respectively. Analysts expect these measures to significantly impact foreign defense and chip firms while accelerating American efforts toward self-sufficiency in critical materials.[para. 25][para. 27][para. 28][para. 30][para. 31]

Recent escalations, triggered by tit-for-tat policy measures such as US port fees on Chinese ships and China’s response, reflect a recurring pattern in current US-China relations. Despite immediate volatility, historical precedent from Trump’s previous term suggests that an eventual truce or negotiation is likely.[para. 36][para. 37]