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ASML Warns Two-Year China Sales Surge Is Coming to an End

Published: Oct. 16, 2025  3:00 p.m.  GMT+8
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ASML Holding NV expects its China sales to fall significantly next year, ending a two-year revenue surge that had put the Dutch chipmaking equipment giant in the crosshairs of the U.S.-China tech rivalry.

The level of business in the Chinese market over the last two or three years “was very high,” President and CEO Christophe Fouquet said at an earnings call on Wednesday. He added that the company expects its China business to return to a “more reasonable” level next year.

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This is an AI-generated English rendering of original reporting or commentary published by Caixin Media. In the event of any discrepancies, the Chinese version shall prevail.
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  • ASML expects China sales to drop in 2025 after a surge that made China its largest market, peaking at 46% of Q3 2023 revenue (29% for full year).
  • U.S. export controls and scrutiny over ASML’s sales to Chinese firms impacted its stock, but 2023 revenue still increased, with shares up 42.5% YTD.
  • China announced new rare earth export controls; ASML is assessing regulatory impacts with supply chain partners.
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Who’s Who
ASML Holding NV
ASML Holding NV, a Dutch chipmaking equipment giant, expects a significant decline in its China sales next year after a two-year surge fueled by clearing a backlog and prioritizing Chinese customers. Despite U.S. export controls, China became ASML's largest market in 2023. This drew attention from Washington, leading to new Chinese export control measures on rare earth products used in ASML's high-end systems.
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